Natural Disasters And China’s Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Experience Facts And Theoretical Explanation

In recent years, frequent natural disasters caused great casualties and property losses. Sudden natural disasters have become one of the main obstacles to regional economic development. Academia doesn’t follow a clearly conclusion that how natural disaster influence mechanism and strength of macroeconomic fluctuations. While National policy subsidies is still predominant assistance to the affected area. Whether the subsidy policy will intensify macroeconomic fluctuations?My research idea is as follows: first, use SVAR model of short-term constraints to identify the natural disaster impact. Then use Bayesian method to estimate RBC model with the impact of natural disasters. And use the method of second-order moment matching to implement applicability analysis of RBC model which is embedded disaster impact. For explaining the influence of natural disaster impact on macro economy mechanism, RBC mode is used to interpret and analysis the dynamic adjustment path of important macroeconomic variables, such as real output and real consumption. At the end, the paper analysis effects of fiscal policy of subsidy in macroeconomic.The main conclusions as follows: first, Natural disaster impact by reducing the total factor productivity and destroyed an economy’s capital stock directly impact on the economic operation. As our country has vast territory and Huge economy, natural disaster impact is terrible but not the main factors of real output fluctuations. Second, two parts, long-term interests and short-term interests, efficiency and fair, should be considered to determine subsidy proportion in the affected areas. It’s not the more subsidies, the better. Based on the existing research results, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions. At last this paper indicates direction of further improvement.