| In the international climate conference in 2009 in Copenhagen, our country actively put forward our national carbon emissions reduction target which is in 2020, China’s CO2 emission per unit of GDP will decrease 40%-45% than 2005. In the subsequent, the "12-th five -year plan", for the first time, talked of the 12-th five -year plan targets of carbon emissions reduction which is in 2015, the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will decrease 17% than 2010.The two carbon emissions reduction targets are undoubtedly challenges for our country when our country are in her key period of industrialization, urbanization, construction of a well-off society. Especially while our government put forward a series of social and economic development goals.Whether we also can achieve the two carbon emissions reduction goals? And how do the social and economic development goals influence on the two carbon emissions reduction targets? Whether the policies to cut carbon emissions will be enough to ward off the two carbon emissions reduction targets? As well as in what circumstances can achieve the two goals?These problems are worth our careful consideration. Based on this, the paper will research the modes of achieving the two carbon emissions reduction targets.This paper is cuts into by energy consumption to launch with the discussion, choosing LEAP model and IPCC list method to accounting for the carbon emissions from energy consumption from 2000 to 2011 in China, and analysis the characteristics of carbon emissions in China by combined with the carbon emissions intensity. Base on it, the paper use the scenario analysis method and the LEAP model to set different scenarios to study whether we can achieve the two carbon emissions reduction goals, analyse the effects of social and economic development goals on the two carbon emissions reduction goals and the strength of carbon emissions reduction policies, research the modes of achieving the two carbon emissions reduction targets. Finally, the policy suggestions are made.Results were:(l)According to China’s current social and economic development,we can’t achieve the carbon emissions reduction target in the "12-th five-year", but we can basically achieve the carbon emissions reduction target in 2020. While according to the social and economic and energy development plan, we can achieve the carbon emissions reduction target in the "12-th five-year" and can overfulfil the carbon emissions reduction target in 2020.(2)The GDP goal and per capita income goal will obstruct achieving the two carbon emissions reduction targets strongly, while the goal of urbanization of china has little impact on achieving the two carbon emissions reduction targets. Before carrying out any emission reduction policy realizing the economic and social development goals, namely the GDP goal, per capita income goal, the goal of urbanization, will lead to that our nation cannot achieve the two carbon emissions reduction targets.(3) In the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, optimizing the industrial structure policy, lowering the unit GDP energy consumption policy, optimizing energy consumption police will work well with the two carbon emissions reduction targets.(4) The implementation modes of the carbon emissions reduction target in the "12-th five-year" are: ①in the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, carrying out the polices of reducing the unit GDP energy consumption and optimizing the structure of energy consumption at the same time.② In the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, carrying out the polices of optimizing the industrial structure, reducing the unit GDP energy consumption and optimizing the structure of energy consumption at the same time.(5) The implementation modes of the carbon emissions reduction target in 2020 are:①Without the plan of our development of social-economic-energy systems.② In the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, carrying out any one or more of the polices,which are optimizing the industrial structure, reducing the unit GDP energy consumption and optimizing the structure of energy consumption.(6) The overfulfilling modes of the carbon emissions reduction target in 2020 are: ①in the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, carrying out the polices of reducing the unit GDP energy consumption and optimizing the structure of energy consumption at the same time.② In the situation of achieving the social and economic development goals, carrying out the polices of optimizing the industrial structure, reducing the unit GDP energy consumption and optimizing the structure of energy consumption at the same time. |
