Forecast Of Fujian Energy Demand And CO₂ Emission Based On Index Decomposition And LEAP Model

Energy is an important material for human,and an important driving force for human survival,social production and world change.Since the reform and opening up,Fujian Province economy have made tremendous progress,while energy consumption has also been significantly increased.With the deepening of industrialization and urbanization,energy consumption will continue to grow rapidly for a long time.However,the rapid growth of energy consumption not only brings huge challenges to the energy supply system,but also generates a lot of CO2,which causes global warming.For that reasons,China has formulated a series of energy and environmental development goals,such as CO2 emission intensity in 2020 and 2030 decreased by 40%-45%and 60%-65%on the basis of 2005,peaking in 2030 and striving to reach the peak as soon as possible.Fujian Province also formulated the development goals of reducing CO2 emission intensity by 19.5%during the 13th FYP(Five Year Plan),controlling primary energy consumption to about 145 million tons of standard coal and optimizing primary energy consumption structure.Through a comprehensive study of Fujian's energy and environment system,the irrationality of energy production and consumption in Fujian Province is found out,and the total amount of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Fujian Province is predicted scientifically.It has important theoretical and practical significance for Fujian to scientifically formulate the energy and environment development plan and achieve the above goals.Firstly,this paper analyses the current situation of energy consumption from the aspects of total amount,intensity and structure,and calculates the total CO2 emission from energy consumption by using the method 2 recommended by IPCC inventory guide.Then,using Multilayer-hierarchical Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(MH-LMDI),the total CO2 emissions of energy consumption and energy consumption in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed retrospectively,and the key factors affecting energy consumption and CO2 emissions were identified.Finally,the decomposition results of the coupling factors are obtained.By setting the key uncertainties purposefully and using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP),the low development Scenario(LDS),the medium development Scenario(MDS)and the high development Scenario(HDS)are set.Three scenarios are used to forecast the energy consumption and CO2 emission in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2030.Through the comparison of various development paths,this paper evaluates the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in Fujian Province,explores new fields and directions of energy saving and emission reduction,providing path selection and policy recommendations for the coordinated development of energy-economy-environment system.The results show that the key influencing factors of energy consumption from 2000 to 2015 include:economic scale,terminal energy intensity economic structure and terminal energy structure,with their contribution degrees of 143.89%,62.86%10.09%and 13.42%,respectively;and the key influencing factors of CO2 emissions include economic scale,terminal energy intensity,primary energy structuret,economy structure and terminal energy structure,their contributions are:149.04%,60.56%,5.25%9.85%,and 12.26%respectively;Fujian made remarkable achievemengt in energy saving and emission reduction from 2005 to 2015,with energy intensity and CO2 emission intensity decreasing by 34%and 38%respectively.;under the three development scenarios of HDS,MDS and LDS,Fujian Province's energy consumption in 2020 is 146,140 and 137 million tons of standard coal,and the intensity of CO2 emission is reduced by 20%,22%and 26%,respectively.Fujian is likely to achieve the development goal of 13FYP period;Fujian's primary energy consumption in 2030 under three scenarios are 179,155.136 million tons of standard coal,and the total CO2 emissions are 285,233 and 196 million tons,respectively.LDS and MDS achieved the peak CO2 emissions in 2020 and 2025,respectively;the study also found that with the industrial structure and primary energy structure of Fujian Province.Optimizing,structural energy saving and emission reduction will have great development potential,and the relative contribution degree to CO2 emissions is-7.68%and-6.38%,respectively,which will become the second and third driving factors of CO2 emission reduction.After the analysis above,the research finally puts forward the following policy recommendations for Fujian energy supply and consumption system:setting economic development goals rationally and avoiding excessive pursuit of rapid economic development;vigorously develop nuclear power,wind power and photovoltaic power generation to improve clean energy supply;actively promote cogeneration of heat and power to improve energy conversion efficiency of thermal power plants;continuously promoting energy saving and emission reduction technology to reduce the intensity of terminal energy;actively develop tertiary industry and balance the national economic structure.