Research On Scenario Construction Of Liquid Ammonia Leakage Accident Based On Bayesian Network And Business Continuity Management

In recent years, dangerous chemicals leakage accidents happen frequently, once it happens, not only the life safety of the staff are threatened, also it will affect around the public, and even serious environmental disaster is caused, social influence is very bad. The liquid ammonia is a commonly used chemical raw materials, in dangerous chemicals leakage accidents, the probability of its leakage is higher, and accident consequence is complex, its evolution and consequences’severity is hard to predict. So this article selects liquid ammonia as the research object, to carry out scenario construction research of "scenario-response" type, and to study the evolvement and emergency management of liquid ammonia leakage accident. The study will has a certain theoretical value and practical significance to strengthen the emergency management of dangerous chemicals industry.First of all, the history cases of liquid ammonia leakage accident are collected statistics and analyzed. Risk assessment methods of the fault tree, event tree are used to analyze the causes and consequences of liquid ammonia leakage. On the basis of the fault tree and event tree, a butterfly graph model are established and is converted into the bayesian network to study the evolution of liquid ammonia leakage accident. By using Hugin software for forecast reasoning and diagnostic reasoning and sensitivity analysis of the bayesian network, it is concluded that the probability maximum cause and consequences of liquid ammonia leakage. In addition, by means of the analysis of leakage source model, diffusion model and the consequences damage model, consequence analysis model of liquid ammonia leakage accident are selected. Through the above research, it provides the basis for the scenario development work of the fifth chapter "scenario construction".Secondly, the current emergency management is improper management, beforehand supervision and management afterwards are disjointed. After the accident, emergency management efficiency is low and the emergency disposal is chaotic. Therefore, this article introduces Business Continuity Management in emergency management. From three stages that the prevention and control in advance, the response in the middle and the reconstruction after the accident, based on Business Continuity Management, an innovative liquid ammonia enterprise emergency management model is set up. The task of its corresponding stages are analyzed, among them, the enterprise’s business analysis and Business Continuity Management response system is put emphasis upon and analyzed. The fourth part of the paper aims to convert emergency management into the normalized management, improve the self-help ability of enterprise itself, keep business continuity as far as possible, and reduce the loss of the accident.Finally, on the basis of the third and fourth chapter, liquid ammonia tank of H chemical enterprise is taken for example to carry out scenario construction of liquid ammonia leakage accident. Considering the high probability of accidents and the most serious accident, two scenarios are set up. By using matlab software to simulate the diffusion concentration range, the consequence of the accident are calculated and the task are analyzed in the process of emergency response. It will provide certain reference for emergency management work of liquid ammonia leakage accident.