Analysis And Research On Loading And Unloading Leakage Accident Of Bulk Chemical Ship Based On Bayesian Network

With the continuous growth of marine cargo transport volume,as the carrier of cargo ships,its scale is also constantly developing.The bulk chemical carrier,as a special kind of ship specialized for transporting chemicals,has attracted more and more attention,not only because of the particularity of the cargo it carries,but also because of the leakage accidents it causes,which often arouse the wide attention of the society,sometimes there's panic.Most of the chemicals transported by sea are inflammable,explosive,volatile and toxic in physical and chemical properties.Once a spill occurs,it is likely to cause major accidents of human casualties and environmental pollution.Through the analysis of the existing cases,it is found that in the course of chemical transportation and trade,the terminal loading and unloading process is easy to produce leakage accident and is often despised.In this paper,the study on the leakage accident of bulk chemical tanker terminal is not only beneficial to the prevention and treatment of the leakage accident,but also beneficial to the protection of the marine environment.On the basis of reviewing the theoretical literature on chemical leakage and previous studies,this paper chooses the method of Bayesian network to study,because it has better data mining and reasoning ability.By collecting and sorting out the cases of chemical leakage accidents occurring in the major domestic oil-chemical ports and their adjacent waters,and combining the statistics of the attempted incidents(Near-miss)reports of the relevant large-scale ship management companies,the factors affecting chemical leakage accidents are summarized and classified,that is to say,from different aspects such as human factors,chemical tanker factors,environmental factors and management factors,the specific causes of leakage accidents on bulk chemical tankers and the causal relationship between them are explored,to determine the structure of the Bayesian network.The conditional probability of each node in the Bayesian network structure is obtained by means of online investigation and relevant experts' experience and knowledge combined with the method of data statistical processing,and the Bayesian network model of the leakage accident in the loading and unloading of chemical vessels is determined,the Risk Assessment and the sensitivity analysis of the risk factors are carried out by Ge NIe software.Finally,an example is given to validate the Bayesian network model.Based on the sensitivity analysis of different nodes in the constructed Bayesian network model,the factors that are most likely to cause accidents are found out,and some suggestions are given to prevent the accidents from happening at the terminals of bulk chemical carriers.The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the leakage accidents on the loading and unloading docks of bulk chemical carriers by the Bayesian network provide some guidance for the petrochemical ports and ship management companies to strengthen the accident prevention and personnel management,at the same time,it also provides a reference for Marine and related departments to make a summary of the leakage accident.