Dynamic Changes Of Hulun Lake And Its Driving Forces Analysis Based On RS Model

Hulun Lake, located in HulunBuir Plateau, is the important carrier of the surrounding ecological environment, so the fluctuation of lake area directly affects the stability of local ecological environment. In this paper, the Hulun Lake have been picked as the research objects, the use of remote sensing, hydrological models and methods of statistical analysis, explore the trends and driving forces under different climate scenarios. Using NDWI and Near Infrared Threshold Model, this study interpreted the remote sensing images in Hulun Lake from 2000 to 2015 in order to obtain the variation of lake area; combined with the natural and social factors using principal component analysis and partial correlation analysis driving force; combined with SWAT model, water balance equation and Thornthwaite evaporation equation calculation two major rivers of Hulun Lake under different climate change scenarios. Main conclusions of this research are as below:(1) During 2000-2015, surface area exhibits an increasing trend to reduce the post-emergence. In 2005 the largest area decrease amount, and in 2013 least area increased amount. The surface area is in a relatively stable period during 2000-2015.(2) Changes surface area of Hulun Lake mainly in the east, northeast, south and southwest.(3) The establishment SWAT model of Hulun area, adjustment and verification of the model reached the evaluation requirements(4) Under the assumption of climate scenarios, when the temperature rises and precipitation increases, the runoff increases and surface area increases; when the temperature rises and precipitation decreases, the runoff decreases and surface area decreases.(5) Nearly 16 years, social factors become the main driving force of Hulun Lake Nearly 16 years. Social factors could explain 55.033% lake dynamic changes, and natural factors could explain 28.564% lake dynamic changes...