Investigation And Analysis Of Commercial Fire Accidents In China And Countermeasures

Commercial business is an important part of national economy. It is inextricably linked with people’s daily lives in all aspects of basic necessities. The capacity of commercial business is an immportant indicator of a city’s level of development. In this paper, commercial business refers to nine kinds of accommodation including shopping malls, supermarkets, indoor makets, outdoor markets, other shops, hotels/hostels, entertainment places, dining, and storage spaces. The government and business units can obtain guidance of fire safety management from the characteristics, regularity and forecast of fire accidents. The guidance provide the government and business units with appropriate countermeasures to prevent and reduce the amount and loss of commercial fire accidents, which means a lot to economic development and social stability.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows.(1) Investigation and analysis of commercial fire accidents. The data of commercial fire accidents ranging from 2007 to 2013 is collected. By drawing statistical histogram plots and data analysis, the distribution law and changing law of time of frequency, causes, regional distribution and quarterly distribution are obtained.(2) A prediction model of fire accidents is established. The ARIMA model is based on the data of the casualties of fire accidents from 2007 to 2012. The method of time series analysis is used. Eviews software is used to establish the ARIMA model. The model established is tested and turns out to be suitable. The dynamic prediction of fire accidents of year 2013 is carried out using the model. It turns out that the model has a good reliability and can be popularized for prediction.(3) Summary of the current situation and problems of commercial fire prevention. Countermeasures to improve the fire safety management of commercial business are put forward from three respects: optimizing government leadership and supervision, optimizing commercial unit management of fire safety management, and giving full play to the role of third-party organization. Finally, a triangular structure of these three aspects is proposed.