| Salt lake resources are very important and non-renewable mineral resources, which plays an important role in ensuring the security of agriculture in our country. With the rapid development of global production of salt lake mineral products has shown a trend of a rapid growth, people pursuit economic efficiency maximization simply, and this kind of extensive development model has caused a great waste of salt lake resources and destroyed the environment, which is unfavorable for the protection and rational utilization of salt lake resources, and shorten the time of exploiting salt lake resources.Reasonable production scale is one of the most basic and important parameters during the development and utilization process of salt lake deposit. Compared with other solid ore deposits, salt lake resources system has its own special dynamic nature because of its special formation and evolution process. When determining the reasonable scale of salt lake deposit, many affecting factors should be considered comprehensively, which include not only the resources endowment characteristics, technical conditions, market demand, environmental capacity, but also the location, the transport capacity of mineral products, the volatility of price, the change of domestic market situation. Based on the comprehensive analysis of internal and external factors of the salt lake resources system, this paper build a comprehensive decision system for optimizing the production scale of salt lake deposit. The main work and conclusions are as follows:(1) Analyzing the current situation of salt industry in China, the distribution of salt lake resources as well as the situation of supply and demand, It has been found that the cause of salt lake enterprises in China expand the scale of production blindly is that they pursue of short-term profits and the lower effective length of mining license minimum, etc.(2) Analyzing the main factors influencing of the reasonable production scale of salt lake deposit by resource endowment, technology, market economy, social benefit and environmental capacity and so on, It has been found that resources, market demand, the minimum length of service and environmental capacity are the rigid constraints, while technology, the total amount of investment, external transportation ability, auxiliary raw material supply and labor supply is flexible constraints.(3) This study constructs some optimization models of reasonable production scale of salt lake deposit. Firstly, building constraint models in resource endowment, technology conditions and environmental benefits, social benefits and economic benefits, and using the constraint models to get reasonable production scale. Then, building a comprehensive evaluation index system especially for the optimal production scale of salt lake deposit, and trying to apply gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the optimal production scale of salt lake deposits.(4) Because the data for deciding optimal production scale is so large and changes dynamically.this research designs an optimization integrated decision-making system, includes interactive subsystem, database subsystem, knowledge base subsystem, model base subsystem of salt lake deposit. The system use Export System and help system to combine each module organically, which helps related managers make a strategic decision fleetly and accurately.(5) In order to verify the reasonable of the optimization model and the decision system, the Xitaijinaier Salt Lake has been taken as a study case, collecting industry information, the study uses the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the optimal production scale of Xitaijinaier Salt Lake. Results show that the optimal production scale of Xitaijinaier Salt Lake deposits is lithium carbonate potassium magnesium fertilizer for 1 million t/a,30 thousand t/a, lithium carbonate 20 thousand t/a. So the minimum service life of Xitaijinaier Salt Lake is about 40 years, the development of the current situation and the basic conditions is well matched in the Xitaijinaier Salt Lake. |
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