| China is the largest coal producing and consuming country, and is the most serious mine disasters in the word, especially the gas disaster is most serious. Gas disaster prevention has been the current focus work of coal mine safety.The effective control of gas disaster with gas geological theory, has been a boom. The mine gas emission is the key gas hazard identification, and study on forecast and early warning on gas emission is the main gas disaster prevention.The paper took Pingdingshan Twelfth Mine as the research object, studied mine gas geology rule through theoretical analyzed and other means, and combined with the mathematical methods,established the forecast model of gas emission and data screening model.Firstly, this paper used gas occurrence tectonic gradual control theory, studied the Twelfth Mine the earth the regional tectonic evolution of mine, and by the analysis of the characteristics of their respective control gas structure, Obtained the horizontal gas occurrence regularity the mine. On the basis of this, according to the factors affecting gas emission quantity, analyzed the gas emission law of the mine. Secondly, the emission data was counted, the source of the data was analyzed. And the gas emission data screening model was established which could apply database technology and the quantile method, and achieving the selection and screening realizes gas emission data. Finally, forecast model of gas emission was established by used the grey system theory and method of fractal theory, improving the forecast precision of warning, achieving long-term and short-term predictions of gas emission.And gas prediction and warning module was created, which could achieve the realization of dynamic early warning in the working face gas geological map, and refer to the gas monitoring data to predict the result of real time correction. To provide the basis for mine gas emission control, and ensure the production of coal mine safety. |
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