Long-term Load Forecasting Of Power System

Load forecasting is a major component of power to run electricity sector toexplore and distribution network planning is to ensure safe, effective andeconomical power system operation simply, is a prerequisite for planning andconstruction of electric power. Electricity network layout, rational investment andoperation mainly by the extent of the power load forecasting accurately the impactof economic, safe and reliable operation of the power system is also inseparablefrom the power load forecasting accuracy.Many uncertainties that may affect the accuracy of long-term load forecasting,and in a predictive model, it is impossible to include all these factors, it is, for now,to ensure that any predictive model in what circumstances people can get in linewith the wishes of the forecast results. So when doing a specific load forecasting,should be combined with the actual situation in the region, choose a differentprediction models to determine the predictive value and comparative analysis of therelevant aspect.This paper describes research status at home and abroad, purpose andsignificance of the power system load forecasting, a variety of load forecastingmethod and gray prediction methods used to predict the timing of exponentialsmoothing, multiple linear regression forecasting method based on the distributionof certain areas network planning load forecasting, load forecasting based on theresults in each individual model of the premise, in order to meet the accuracyrequirements of load forecasting is proposed combination forecasting method, andcompare the model to achieve a single.Finally, by comparing the results of the analysis of examples of modelpredictions, and verify the feasibility of prediction model proposed in this paper.