Medium And Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based On Combined Model

Load forecasting is one of the most important tasks in the power sector.According to the different forecasting cycles,it can be generally divided into ultra-short term load forecasting,short term load forecasting and medium and long term load forecasting.Important basis,reasonable and accurate load forecasting can effectively reduce the reserve capacity,improve the security and stability of power grid operation,reduce generation costs,ensure the demand for electricity,and promote the stable development of the national economy.Therefore,in order to ensure the accuracy and stability of load forecasting,it is very urgent to improve and research more effective forecasting methods.This paper first discusses the purpose and significance of the study of medium and long term load forecasting in power system,and compares various methods used in load forecasting.It also introduces the outline of load forecasting,basic principles and error analysis of load forecasting.In this paper,the Suining area of Sichuan Province is taken as the research background.Linear regression method,polynomial forecasting method and grey forecasting method are used to forecast the power load in this area.The forecasting model that accords with this area is selected through the forecasting results,and then the combination forecasting method of equal weight average,minimum variance method and variance-covariance method are used.The combination forecasting method is used to improve the prediction accuracy.At present,with the rapid development of social economy,the rapid development of scientific and technological innovation and the continuous improvement of people's living standards,with the deepening of industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading,the elimination of backward industries,the acceleration of the layout of high-tech industries,modern service industries,and modern agriculture has become an urgent task for all regions,together with the people.The yearning for a better life,the rising consumption habits and levels have led to new changes in electricity consumption structure and mode,which directly affect the accuracy of power load forecasting.In this paper,a new combined forecasting method is proposed,which combines the correlation ratio coefficient with the traditional single forecasting method to further improve the accuracy of load forecasting.The experimental data show that the prediction method can strengthen the correlation between the various factors and smooth the prediction error of the single prediction method.Combined with the change of power load in recent years,it can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of power load.Then,this algorithm model is used to predict the power consumption in the next few years.In order to verify the adaptability of the new combined forecasting method,this paper selects the data from other areas to forecast,and obtains the adaptability and limitations of this algorithm in power load forecasting.