The Life Statistical Modeling Of Wind Turbine And Its Gearbox

Based on30Chinese1.5MW horizontal axis wind turbines’52months operating data, the MTBF distribution model of wind turbines is established; Based on30wind turbine gearboxes’zero-failure data, the Bayesian method and optimal confidence limit method are applied to predict wind turbine gearboxes’reliability and reliable life time; The related experience information of wind turbine gearboxes’components are collected, the Bayesian method or optimal confidence limit method is used to analysis the reliability of gearboxes’components. The research main content is as follows:(1) Wind turbine as a repairable system, its life time is refers to the mean time between failure (MTBF), to establish life time distribution model is to set up the distribution model of MTBF in the practical work for repairable system. So, the MTBFs of30wind turbines’52months operating data are extracted, the MATLAB software is applied to do the parameter estimation, curve fitting and hypothesis test of distribution model. After that the wind turbines’MTBF distribution model is established finally.(2) Due to the reliability data of wind turbine gearboxes performed as zero-failure data, that is, during the censored time, gearboxes haven’t occur failure. According to relevant methods to analysis zero-failure data, the Bayesian method and optimal confidence limit method are chosen to analyze the zero-failure data of gearboxes, respectively. Meanwhile, the rule for confidence level from optimal confidence limit method is discussed. The prediction of wind turbine gearboxes’ reliability and reliability life time are obtained eventually.(3) After the analysis progress of wind turbine gearboxes’zero-failure data based on Bayesian method and optimal confidence limit method, the characteristics of two methods are learned, and the related empirical data of components are collected through targeted. Based on the empirical data, optimal confidence limit method is selected to predict the reliability of wind turbine gearboxes’components under the two cases of shape parameter known and unknown.Therefore, the reliability analysis and forecast for wind turbine and its gearbox based on reliability data can provide a reference to design and manufacturing, which has important research value. And a new idea for the reliability analysis of Chinese wind turbine gearbox under zero-failure data is developed.