Selection And Application Of Load Forecasting Method For County Dispatching System

The results of load forecasting is the foundation of power system operation.The prediction accuracy affects the safety and economic of the operation directly.To improve the precision of prediction is also the pursuit of each load forecasting personnel. And around the County Bureau,the load forecast accuracy has been incorporated into the benchmarking assessment,therefore, a pressing matter of the moment is how to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.A index system of load characteristics with science and criterion is the basis of research on load characteristics. Load characteristic index is divided into daily load characteristics index, weekly load characteristics index, monthly load characteristics index, season’s load characteristics index and yearly load characteristic index. This paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of load index, and puts forward to an approach to the analysis of load characteristics with the combination of curves and index. Based on the load forecasting and management system developed by the Beijing Qingruan Creative Technology Limited, this paper makes full use of the system load analysis and load curve graphics, introduces the analysis method of load characteristics, and studies on load characteristics,changing trends and corresponding figures of Zhuji power grid in each season. Through the analysis above,it comes to the main factors which influence the load of Zhuji power grid.It introduces the design ideas, models, calculation ways of28normal daily prediction methods provided by the system in detail, and applies them in the practical prediction.The accuracy of each prediction is compared by list. For example, the general prediction accuracy in June is lower than that in April.This paper presents how to select the appropriate forecasting method, Mainly, compare the accuracy of the methods, one week before the forecast day. Firstly, select the methods witch have the average value above97%in a week. Secondly, select higher accuracy methods in the last two days.When the accuracy of the methods fall short of expectations,we can choose the most exactly method. We confirm this method is feasibility form the case.Then it points out that it is necessary to think about three factors:the load conditions of the day, weather conditions and planned maintenance work arrangements.Finally,you should adjust the calculation results by person considering characteristics of the load,, in order to improve the prediction accuracy.