The Wind Power Reliability Modeling Research Considering The Effects Of Typhoon

In recent years, our country gradually start building wind farms in the coastal areas. Typhoon as a kind of special weather situation, it may cause serious influence to the coastal wind farm. Typhoon wind speed is high, and sometimes it may exceed50m/s. The wind will put severe wind load effect to the wind turbines structure and make the blade damage. The typhoon wind speed change is prominent, it may result in trip down of wind turbines and lose a large number of power supply suddenly. In addition, the typhoon may cause something on the wire or branch lodging on the line, causing tripping or failure of high voltage transmission line. Therefore, it is necessary to the quantitative analysis the typhoon influence to wind farm output power, and to analyze its effect of the system reliability from the system point of view.In order to select the faster, more accurate wind field model, this paper simulate the historical typhoon Wayne and hagupit, based on the Batts wind field model, Yan Meng wind field model and Shapiro wind field model. According to the analysis of this article, Yan Meng wind field model have higher precision and computing speed is suitable, this model can be used for simulate and reproduce the typhoon wind speed. On this basis, choose a Guangdong’s wind farm as simulate area, fit the typhoon key parameters distribution model of the simulated point and form a different sequence of typhoon wind speed simulation, according to the historical records data of the tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific best path. For the examples wind farm in this article, there are about65-70%of the tropical cyclone could urge to wind farm capacity increasing, and about30-35%of the typhoon may result in large-scale wind turbine tripping, and suggest that wind farm control personnel take timely corresponding control strategy.Combined with the actual wind fan layout, use the wind power curve to solve out the output power of the wind turbines under the typhoon weather.Finally, take RTS79reliability test system for example, study the short-term reliability of power system under the typhoon weather, as the data based on the power system scheduling and risking control. The results show that the typhoon will greatly reduce short-term reliability level, even in a certain period of time, system reliability improve slightly when wind power generating capacity increasing, but the typhoon caused line failure rate doubled. When typhoon wind speed in the above magnitude seven, it will reduce the system reliability, and the typhoon wind speed stay below six levels, the system reliability level slightly ascending. In addition, as the wind power installed capacity is larger, the lower the probability of system load under the condition of the same wind speed. When wind power penetration is0.9032%, the system load probability reduce0.4215%; When wind power penetration is8.1284%, the system load probability reduce1.6156%. When wind power penetration between0.9032%～8.1284%, the greater the wind power penetration, the higher the system reliability. When wind power penetration of9.032%, a single node access capacity beyond the trend line transmission capacity limitation makes the system power flow changes, so system reliability is reduced. When the system power standby gradually reduced, the reliability of the system were also gradually reduced. when the system power generation capacity is insufficient, the system has larger probability to maintain in the condition of the original system, so the system load shedding probability approximate to1.