Based On The Relativtion Of Multimodal Cooperative Competition Urban Corridor Of The Transit Passenger Flow Prediction Research

The technology of the rail transport passenger flow forecast is the basic of urbanrail transport infrastructure investment decisions, constructions and operations, that isthe guarantee of constructions and systems work normally and efficiently as well. Thecurrent commonly used technology of the rail transport passenger flow forecast take lessconsideration in the competition and collaboration of the city multi-model transportwhich has influenced on it. So combining the forecast of rail transport closely with theother transport analysis prediction on the ground and improving the science and validityof the demand forecast model are the hot issues to be solved in the prediction of railtransport passenger flow, also are the necessary conditions of promoting thedevelopment of rail transport as well.This paper mainly constructs the “the urban rail transport passenger flow forecastbased on the competition and collaboration relationships” from four parts: The first part,the paper proposes the competition and collaboration relationships between the everyway of transportation and rail transport impacted on the passenger flow within the urbantransport corridors, through analyzing the operation characteristics of city corridors. Thesecond part, it puts forward the determined method which is the rail transport and otherways of competition and collaboration relationships on the spatial scope, on the twoconditions that the planned routes of rail transport are more perfect and the other are not,that’s based on the rail transport and the competition and collaboration of the othermeans of ground transportations which happened within the specific spatial scope. TheThird part, this paper establishes an abstract model of multi-model transport network inthe spatial scope of the multi-way competition and collaboration relationships, and itproposes the quantitative method of the comprehensive traffic impedance, also the papertakes the collaborations between rail transport sections and other transportations on theground into account, therefore, it forms amounts of possible paths of competing witheach other, so the paper provides the identified method of the valid paths of the numberof limited paths, and establishes the dynamic searching mechanisms based on reverselythe valid paths of the priority to search algorithm. The forth part, on the foundation ofthe identified valid paths, firstly, this paper establishes the quantitative way ofcomprehensive property of the paths that reacts the competition relationships among allthe valid paths, by analyzing the property of the travel decision paths which influences on the inner collaborations of paths and the competitions between the paths. Secondly,the paper builds the combination forecasting model of disaggregate traffic waydivision-path allocation which takes the personal characteristics of traveler intoaccount----the fuzzy reasoning method that’s based on multi-path decisions of thepersonal characteristics, which is based on the different impacts that the property oftraveler on the comprehensive paths values of the paths. The paper verifies the validityof the forecasting model by the numerical way.In this paper, the rail transit passenger flow prediction technology, effectively forrail transit facilities investment decision-making, planning, construction and operationprovides effective basis.