The Study About Most Optimum Distribution Of The Passenger Transport Route From Macroscopic View

Three decades of reform and opening up，China’s road transport industry isdeveloping rapidly， especially in road passenger transport undertakings， thenumber of the passengers grow up continually，conditions of transport improvegradually，arrangements range of passenger transport route increase year by year.But the development of the highway transportation career is so overheat that we cansee a number of predictable problems，such as the excessive concentration ofpassenger station resource，the traffic jam in the city and inconvenience of passengerevacuation and transfer caused by supersaturation operation of hub passenger station，the unbalanced distribution of passenger caused by the unreasonable setting ofpassenger transport route and the inefficient operation，seldom passenger of newpassenger station caused by irrational forecasting and planning. Therefore， underthe established macroeconomic policy，to study the inherent law of the existinghighway passenger transport integrate and optimize the the whole passengertransport route reasonably is very necessary and of practical significance.In this study，we first introduce the basic concept of passenger transport route，distinguish the confusing definitions of transport route and transport line， so as toleading into the notion of passenger transport route deploy to recommend somebasic programs of transport route deploy and expound influencing factors oftransport route from the macroscopic and microcosmic perspective exhaustive.Secondly we research and investigate the prediction methods of highwaypassenger transport demand. we compose the regression analysis，elastic coefficientmethod，double exponential smoothing method and gray prediction method topredict total passenger traffic.we also investigate the direction of demandforecasting method in passenger structure prediction which provide theoreticalsupport for the modeling and case analysis.Afterwards， we establish macroscopical passenger transport route deploymodel.Via comprehensive consideration and comparison of various factors， weselect invalid travel time and the city travel cost in this paper to set up amulti-objective optimization model in order to produce the maximun travelbenefits.In the final of this paper，we take six passenger depots in Harbin urbanizedarea as a case，combine with the theories and methods introduced above to forecast passenger flow volume of all directions in Harbin in the next decade，discuss theoptimization of passenger transport route in Harbin and proposed a macrodisposition optimization program for Harbin city which based on the model andactual situation ultimately.