Research On The Forecasting System Of Ice Conditions In Inner Mongolia Section Of The Yellow River

Ice is a widespread natural phenomenon in cold regions on earth. In our country, area of ice mainly distributed in more than40°N and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Where river ice is high latitudes exist hydrological phenomena, our ice phenomenon mainly occurred in the northeast Songhua River, Liaohe River and the Yellow River Basin, its growing and disappearance process is different. In the Yellow River Basin, The main ice phenomenon occur in the Henan-Shandong section and the Ningxia and Inner Mongolia section.In the Ningxia and Inner Mongolia section of Yellow River, due to its special geographical location, river course and climatic conditions, determines the Yellow River produce different degrees of ice flood every year. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia section is located at between37°～41°50’N, southern of Inner Mongolia, high temperatures in Ningxia, low temperature in Inner Mongolia. So, when winter come, the first freeze-up in Inner Mongolia section, and on the back, when break-up period, the first break-up in Ningxia section, gradually downward development.Based on the Inner Mongolia of Yellow River ice data in past years, combined ice features of Inner Mongolia, Firstly, describes the ice forecasting research progress, then, Establish database selecting the1970-1971～2007-2008hydrological, meteorologic-al and ice information in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River, apply ADO OLEDB call database, according to the artificial neural network theory of and multiple linear regression theory, build meet the requirements model of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression, design and development forecasting system of ice conditions in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River forecasting date of ice-run, freeze-up and break-up in every station. Finally, using the data of5years of2003-2004～2007-2008prediction test.Result have shown that, the Yellow River ice conditions forecasting system have a good effect, and operate is easer than mathematical models, more likely to be applied to the actual work. Final, come to conclusion, the system still exist a number of issues need further study and discussion, and adjust, for the system better service to the Yellow River ice forecasting.