Research On Wagon Flow Organization Optimization And Empty Wagon Allocation Based On Traffic Flow Fluctuation

Abstract:In the process of wagon flow organization, many uncertain factors may cause wagon flow’s fluctuation, such as the fluctuation situation of goods flow, the join situation of wagon flow, and the usage situation of vehicle, which leads to the traffic organization uncertainty and dynamic. Based on the domestic and foreign literature, and considering the actual situation of wagon flow wave, this article analyzed and researched on wagon flow organization issues systematically.First, based on the fluctuation of wagon flow, this article using chance-constrained optimization of uncertainty planning, established the optimization model of traffic transport scheme. In consideration of the wagon flow fluctuation, through setting a certain confidence level of value for the constraints and objective function respectively, analyzed the optimization model in two cases, for considering and not considering the extra expenses at technical station. And based on the premise of wagon flow wave, using normal distribution of the traffic flow as an example, the corresponding traffic transportation plan is analyzed. The results show that, when the extra expenses is considered to wagon flow reorganization model, can effectively increase the direct traffic, and reduce times of reorganization, which is conducive to the flow of fast delivery. At the same time, through considering the fluctuation of wagon flow, can make the results more stable, and more conform to the actual.Then, based on the supply and demand fluctuations, this article analyzed the problem of empty wagon allocation. Through analyzing the traditional problem of empty wagon allocation, this article put forward that the empty wagon exist fluctuations in the process of deployment due to various uncertain factors. Through analyzing the uncertain factors, setting a certain confidence level of value for the constraint conditions and objective function, established the optimization model of empty wagon distribution under the conditions of supply and demand fluctuations. And the results show that, when considering the fluctuations of supply and demand, the original balanced allocation problem may be converted to non-balanced allocation problem, this is more conform to the actual, by adding virtual transmitting station or virtual receiving station can solve the non-balanced problem effectively.Finally, the railway freight’s internal and external environment are analyzed, and based on traffic organization optimization, puts forward some countermeasures to improve the competitiveness of Railway Freight.