The Three Gorges Runoff Characteristics And Scheduling Problem Research

With the development of national economy, many areas carry out a study ofhydropower reservoirs compensation. the Three Gorges water control projectscheduling and operation is very complex, and covers a wide range of region,accepting unify operation management announced by proper authorities, which isresponsible for coordinating flood control, navigation, power generation, hydro-meteorological etc. In accordance with the actual situation, the optimal operation planis carried out actively to ensure the safety of flood control and navigation, at the sametime, producing the best electric power and others comprehensive benefits. ThreeGorges Project scheduling has become an important object of study, which makes therisk assessment so important that provides reference for scheduling decision-making.In this paper, the risk was evaluated by aspects of hydrological conditions andoptimal scheduling. The hydrological risk was analyzed by the runoff data in Yichangof Three Gorges Dam; based on the Three Gorges reservoir generation scheduling,taking flood control, water supply, irrigation and other comprehensive benefits intoaccount, The Three Gorges conventional scheduling plan was analyzed. At the sametime, the traditional optimization algorithms and evolutionary optimization algorithmare applied to reservoir operation and compared respectively to reveal the defects ofoptimal operation applying to actual scheduling, while Mean First Order SecondMoment (MFOSM) is applied to the two algorithms to compute and compare thequantitative risk.The uncertainty of runoff leads to the uncertainty in decision making. Thehydrological variables links is revealed by analyzing the historical runoff data basedon Copula function, and the Three Gorges reservoir adverse scheduling is analyzed bythe Bayesian network.Parallel dynamic programming algorithm and improved genetic algorithm areapplied to optimal operation to analyze the defects form point of view of reliabilityand economic, which provides a basis for scheduling decisions.From The Three Gorges qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the qualitativeoperation plan risk is analyzed by fault tree, and the quantitative risk of the twoalgorithms is analyzed byMFOSM. The results shows that dynamic programmingalgorithm has higher reliability and genetic algorithm with high risk.