The Mixed-effects Model Applied To The Prediction Of Vessel Traffic Flow

Vessel traffic flow forecasting is an emerging discipline effectively combined thewater transportation engineering technology and statistical forecasting technology,and its research is of great significance to port planning and construction andmanagement. At present, there are many methods for the prediction of vessel trafficflow, some of them have advantages of high presicion and low calculation. While,besides the native drawbacks, these methods regard all ships (regardless of the size)as one, which leads to many problems, such as low accuracy of details, and reduce theapplicability of the prediction results.. So to explore new method to research thecharacteristics of vessel traffic flow and to forecast it is of extremely importantsignificance.Under the background of the present situation of vessel traffic flow, this papermainly explores the mixed-effects relationship between the influence factors andtraffic flow based on the general influence factors and ship’s individual characteristics.And then establish mixed-effects models reflecting the actual traffic situations andcharacteristics fitted to the traffic flow, and using the model, we can do predicting andanalysis on traffic flow. Thus, this can provide a fundamental basis for canal orwaterway planning and design or ship’s navigation management and make a scientificand rational planning of ports.The work is mainly from the following several aspects:1. Summarize the related influence factors of vessel traffic flow, and doreasonable classification for ship on the individual characteristics, andanalyse the mixed-effect’s applicability to the study of vessel traffic flow.2. According to the related influence factors to establish linear mixed-effectsmodels, and by fitting and comparing to verify the reliability andfeasibility of mixed-effects models.3. To establish the nonparametric mixed effects model on spline, and solve thecomputational problem, and apply it to the research of vessel traffic flowand vessels’ arriving law.4. Do empirical research and compare with the result analysis by using the vessel traffic flow observation data of Tianjin Port.The paper describes the mixed effects relationship of the vessel’s individualfeature and the vessel traffic flow in detail. The conclusion is that, the mixed effectsmodels considering the differences between-group, and distinguishing the ship’s typeto study the traffic flow, verify the feasibility reliability and validity of the models onthe study of vessel traffic flow and vessles’ arriving rule. It improves the predictionprecision and has strong practical applications, and it provides a great method for thedetails forecast of vessel traffic flow.