The Research Of Saturation Load Analysis Techniques And Its Application

The development of power is closely related to the economy andsociety and has a promoting effect to them, in addition, the economic andsocial development and progress can further stimulate the demand andadvancement of the power. With the rapid development of our country’seconomy, the cities also have experienced a great expansive development,but are also faced with many challenges now, such as population density,aging, shortage of land resources, environment and air pollution, etc. Therelationship between urban development and its grid development is bothinterdependent and difficult to coordinate. If lack of long-termdevelopment plan of the city grid or the aspect of work is not progress inplace, it is bound to take a lot of trouble to future power grid constructionand transformation work, and greatly increase the cost of renovation andexpansion work. The saturated load forecasting of power demand candetermine the ultimate size of a region’s future grid development. Throughthe analysis, research and forecasting of a region’s saturated load, theultimate size of the regional power grid can be determined. The forwardpower grid planning goals can be used to guide grid construction of therecent period, can effectively reduce the cost of the reconstruction of thepower grid, contribute to the work of gradual and methodical renovationand construction of the regional power grid, is conducive to the adaptationand harmony among the regional economy, regional planning and networkdevelopment. The saturated load analysis technique, mentioned in thisarticle, consists of saturated load analysis and forecasting methodology,specific operations and processes of saturated load forecasting, erroranalysis technology and model checking technology.This thesis has expounded the basic concept, basic features, researchcontents and research significance of saturated load, proposed a new definition and meaning for saturated load, amended and improved thequantified index system for judging saturated load through studying largeamounts of data, the characteristics and regular pattern of economy andsaturated load development process in developed countries and regions.This paper has also organized, summarized and introduced the existingsaturation load forecasting models and the method system moresystematically, analysed the development rule of saturated load andpresented the stages division theory of load development based on Logisticcurve. Besides, the Logistic model and Gompertz model has also beenimproved in this thesis, so that the prediction results can be more accurateand reasonable. Research has been done on the influencing factors ofsaturated load, using the gray correlation analysis methods to quantify andassess the influencing factors. Multi-dimensional saturated load forecastingmethod based on analysis of the influencing factors is also proposed. Inthis paper, multi-dimensional saturated load forecasting method is adopted,firstly evaluate the influence factors through the Grey Relational Analysis,and then choose the influence factors as independent variables, and theelectricity demand as the dependent variable to create function, and thespecific mathematical model can be determined by the method of leastsquares. This method, with relatively high prediction accuracy, can notonly assess the future electricity saturated conditions, can also analysis thesensitivity to the influence factors, is the development and innovation tothe saturated forecasting method. This method can also generate feedbackparity index, with a certain degree of practicality and instructive value.Finally, the improved Logistic model and multi-dimensional saturated loadforecasting model has been applied to study and analyse the case,completing the prediction and analysis work of the power saturationscale,the value and the saturation time point for the case.