Research On Saturated Load Forecasting Based On Load Density Method And Logistic Model Method

Load forecasting is used to identify the load data of a particular time in the future when it satisfies some certain accuracy requirements based on many contributing factors such as operating characteristics, decision-making ability, natural conditions and social influence of this system. Saturated load forecasting is used to seek the largest scale and ultimate form of the development of urban electric network.This thesis first introduces the definition and the main current forecasting methods of saturated load forecasting. Then it analyzes the fundamental properties of saturated load, the identification index of saturated electric power demand, influence factors of saturated load as well as the difficulties in actual operations of load forecasting and the corresponding solutions.The author of this study deeply investigates the advantages and disadvantages as well as the applicable situations of a variety of forecasting methods, in which the load density method and the Logistic model method used in this study are mainly demonstrated.With the practical project, the saturated load forecasting for the central urban area in Yuzhou has been done with the load density method and the Logistic model method. The load density method is carried out on the basis of urban development planning, provided by planning department with detailed graphs for the land-use functions, which are mainly studied from the following aspects in this thesis: the load density index and the demanding coefficient index of covered areas of planning lands as well as the selections and the forecasting results of the load coincidence factor index. The Logistic model method is a kind of mathematical forecasting method based on a large amount of historical data. In this thesis, this method is used to explore the improvement of the Logistic model, the study of its four phases theory, the fitting method of model parameters as well as the MATLAB programming calculation, plotting and analysis for the forecasting results.Finally, the comparative analysis and checking for the forecasting results obtained from the two methods, the load density method and the Logistic model method, have been conducted. Furthermore, the rationality and accuracy of the two methods employed in the actual operation of saturated load forecasting have been verified.