Studies Of Town Gas Network Node Load Forecast And Storage Capacity

This topic puts the gas pipe network and the urban gas network node load forecasting gas storage capacity as the research object of study,and according to the urban gas network nodes (generally for special pressure regulator, pressure and pressure regulating tank, etc.) after the user category, classifying the node load prediction,at the same time studying on medium pressure gas pipeline network of urban gas storage capacity.The main contents of this paper are as follows:1、According to the structural characteristics of the town gas pipe network and node after categories of users,put forward a method of node load user classification and prediction; Will the user nodes are divided into seven categories:residential users, public welfare users, industrial users, car users, heating user, air conditioning user, distributed energy user;Through the investigation of Ji’nan Jihua gas company gas pipeline network node data, study the influence factors on the nodes of different categories of users and the change rule with gas.2、Present methods to predict the commonly used gas load forecasting:regression analysis, exponential smoothing method, time series method, grey theory method, expert system method, artificial neural network method, wavelet analysis method and the optimization and combination method,And the principle, characteristics,prediction method of the advantages and disadvantages of each kind of load is analyzed briefly.3、According to the town of various gas users distribution and characteristics of similar changes,put forward seven kinds of gas users are divided into resident and public welfare class of users, industrial users, user class class car, heating the user class and distributed energy users to five categories of prediction; According to the change law and influence factor of different users different prediction models were selected for calculation and analysis, and through a comparative analysis of forecast load and the actual load, prove the feasibility of the prediction model.4、According to the high pressure gas storage and peak shaving of gas network is the way of urban gas system, similarly proposed town gas medium voltage network also has a storage capacity of a certain; And analyze the calculation methods of two kinds of medium pressure gas pipeline gas town:the calculation of steady flow and unsteady flow,at the same time, the principle of the two methods advantages and disadvantages are analyzed; Finally select stable storage capacity calculation method for medium pressure gas pipeline network approximate calculation.5、Through the case of a prefecture level city center city in North China,calculate month day hour peak shaving demand calculation and the network on the medium voltage network storage capacity calculation.This case has proved that the medium voltage network storage has the ability to alleviate the hour peak shaving.Urban gas enterprise if can fully rational use of gas storage medium pressure gas pipe network, can be more reasonable formulation of the scheme to reduce peak hour peak shaving, investment and operation cost, and also helpful for scheduling scheme making the supply tension condition.