Research On Load Forecasting Method Based On Distribution Network Grid

With the social economy develop rapidly,the demand for electricity is also rising,which puts higher demands on the accuracy of load forecasting.Load forecasting is the prerequisite and foundation of distribution network planning,distribution network planning requires that it not only predict the future total load of the planning area,but also predict the spatial distribution and size of future loads,namely total load forecasting and space load forecasting;In this process,the traditional “top-down” distribution network planning drawbacks gradually emerge,but the “bottom-up” distribution network grid planning can meet the above-mentioned load forecasting requirements.Therefore,the close combination of the two is of great significance.This paper researchs a variety of single total load forecasting models,analyzes the characteristics and scope of each single model,however,the uncertainty and multi-schemes of load forecasting determine that a single model cannot fulfill the load forecasting task of distribution network grid planning,need to integrate multiple single models for comprehensive forecasting.Therefore,based on this,a combined forecasting model based on the variance-covariance method to determine the weight of each single model is established as the method of total load forecasting.At present,there are many research methods for space load forecasting,this paper starts from reality,based on the respective regional load distribution characteristics of urban and rural areas in the whole county,spatial load forecasting is carried out separately.Based on this,the load density index method based on unit building area and the large user + natural growth rate method were selected,and improved the latter,on the basis of considering the new large users,the current old large users with stable electricity load are also considered,which improves the accuracy of the near-term forecasting.The distribution network of the county can be regarded as a whole,on the basis of grid division of power supply,two methods are synthetically applied for urban area to forecast the saturation year,the near-term forecast,and the medium-term pushback;considering the “point-to-face combination” in rural,the latter is used to make the near-term forecast,the medium-term and long-term forecast;the above not only the integrity of the prediction area is guaranteed,but also the continuity of the prediction period.Finally,the research contents of this paper are applied to a specific engineering project for example analysis,load forecasting for Neihuang County,The reliability and rationality of the load forecasting model in this paper are verified by the verification of the total load forecasting results and the spatial load forecasting results.Therefore,it provides a practical and reliable method for load forecasting in distribution network grid planning.