Dynamic Study On City Public Traffic Sharing Rate

With the expansion of city size, population and social activities of large-scale cluster makes the daily traffic volume rises substantially. The vehicle volume increased year by year and the road is becoming more and more crowded. City traffic problem has become an important factor restricting the development of the city. The public transport as the main mode of the city people travel way, its high carrying capacity and scientific network planning can effectively ease the city’s traffic. When we fact the problem of population, resources and energy shortage. The bus should make full use of its carrying capacity to ease the city traffic pressure as the main road public transport.Share is the passenger flow distribution probability between two or more than two kinds of traffic mode or route. It represents the various transportation modes and routes market share. Previously researchers usually concentrated on how to develop the basic construction of city orbit traffic concerns or to develop the underground public transport to ease traffic congestion. Most of documents usually compare between the bus and rail transit (subway train, etc.) to study the intention of population travel. They have ignored all kinds of public traffic itself will also have a mutual effects between their partake rate on the road. My paper based on the public transport buses, taxi and tricycle. And object from another angle to analyze the mutual transfer between public transport road traffic share rate. At last to summarize how to improve the bus company operating level means, so that it can play the maximum carrying capacity and increase the share bus. This paper starting from the actual investigation, form design questionnaire to obtain transport quality attributes of various related important degree and quality attribute values. And to establish the Markov transfer matrix from the Logit model. I through the establishment of dynamic transfer matrix and study the situation of every step of the final steady state probability to analyze the rate of share on vehicles of public transport quality attributes. So I can understand how to improve the quality of public transportation group in attribute to solve the bus company problem. It is useful for the decision of bus management. The focus of this paper is as follows:firstly, through the study quality attributes of reliability, frequency, cost, speed, comfort and convenience. And combined with relevant explanations and some concrete through the quality attributes to solve the traffic problems of actual case to classify three types of public transport quality attributes of the application:reliability, comfort and cost. Secondly, after a brief overview of Chengdu City public traffic situation. In order to get closer to the actual situation of data I through the questionnaire to get them, based on the I use the approximate calculation to estimate the quality attributes of three vehicles. And through the two two compared calculation to estimate the relative importance among the quality attributes, namely the weight. Finally using Logit model to establish the public traffic mode of discrete choice model, and make a step of the Markov transfer matrix. In order to be able to transfer dynamic transfer of three forms of transport matrix obtained share rate. I construct the function relationship between the share of each step after transfer and quality attributes. And analyzing when public transport quality attributes in the same scale of attenuation and increasing (I called operators’"not as" and "improve") levels. To discuss which quality attributes on bus share rate has the greatest impact? What kind of quality attributes to improve bus share rate is more effective? Combined with the actual effect of the taxi prices rising in the city on bus share rate to conclusion what the bus company should do from their own way to elevate the bus share rate.