Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Water Demand Forecast Based On BP Neural Network

Water is the source of all things. The development and utilization of water resources is related to the development of the entire national economy. In recent years, Reform and opening are penetrate deeply, China’s urbanization and economic are rapidly developing, so demand for water resources are more and more, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has caused concern in the community. Therefore, water supply and demand balance of water demand forecasting based on water resource management in science is particularly important.Water resource of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is one of which the per capita water resources is least in Northwest China region. Water shortage in Ningxia presented as resource-shortage, water-shortage, engineering-shortage and waste-shortage. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is also one of China’s poverty-stricken counties more provinces. With the development of Western Development, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s the level of socio-economic development and People’s living standards has rapidly increased, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s Industrial process water, Residential water is growing ,problem between water supply and demand in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is particularly severe. Water shortage has become a major bottleneck of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s socio-economic development. This paper studies the future water demand in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to analyze and judge the amount of future water shortages. Through solving the problem of resource-shortage, water-shortage, engineering-shortage and waste-shortage, water shortage problems in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region will be alleviated.Based on summary and analysis of domestic water demand forecasting study history and research methods, according to the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s development and the status quo of the natural, exploitation and use characteristics of water resources, This paper analyzes and summarizes the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s historical data of the water and its influencing factors over the past 13 years, They have found that non-linear characteristics, and then decided to use the improved BP neural network model for the 2015 and 2020’s water demand forecasting of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, followed by a detailed analysis of their predictions’reliability and themselve. It is concluded that agricultural water use increased significantly during thirteen five, agricultural water is a larger proportion of total water consumption. It can be seen agriculture is still a major industry in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region during thirteen five. Finally,, relating with the forecasting result, it was done in the supply and demand balance analysis of 2015 and 2020 in the P = 50% and P = 75%. Combined analysis presented on the face of predictions with the typical annual Act. Then, it put forward practical corrective measures. It concluded as follows:(1) During the thirteen five, the increase in agricultural water use accounted for a larger proportion of total water consumption, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, it’s 88.11% in 2012, but it’s rise to 89.04% in 2015 and 89.7% in 2020. It can be seen agriculture is still the main industry during the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in the thirteenth five.(2) During the thirteen five, industrial water consumption is growth in the totality. The proportion of industrial water is rising to 7.96% in 2015 and 7.64% in 2020 by 7.03%in 2012.(3) During the thirteen five, with the advance of "Five-Year Plan," The natural population growth rate at around 9%, The proportion of consumption is rising to 3.0% in 2015, but it’s fall to 2.67% in 2020 by 2.89% in 2012. As a part of the domestic water consumption, the town water consumption has a more obvious changing.(4) The total water consumption will decline during the thirteen five of 6.9334 billion cubic meters in 2012 to 6.6002 billion cubic meters in 2015, but with the government to implement policies to encourage agriculture, the agriculture period has been considerable development in thirteen Five-Year, it is rose to 7.1543 billion cubic meters of water in 2020.