The Decision Support System Of Small LNG Ships’ Plan Considering Risking Factor

LNG is one of the three major energy in the world, having characteristics of high efficiency and clean. The national economy of China has grown rapidly these years, with growing demand for energy. The amount of LNG imported from abroad also increased year by year, the LNG receiving stations have been estabilished in the coastal areas in China,the small LNG Ships as secondary transport tools are convenient and flexible. Although the number of the small LNG ships operated is a little,some of them are still being built,so the study of the scheme decision-making of small LNG ships is significant. Large LNG ships are strictly regulated in the process of operation,the probability of accident is low. But small LNG ships are in a small tonnage,and in flexible operation,so in the process of operation we need consider the the balance of efficiency and security,not depending on the large LNG ships. But the small LNG ships still carry dangerous cargo, in case of the accident, the accident consequences are larger than nomal,so it is necessary in the process of the design of small LNG ships.Because collision and stranding are more likely to happen than other kinds of accidents, this article analysises the relationship of the ship main elements with ship accidents.focusing on the probability of collision and stranding,then I expect to build the evaluation system which is more suitable for small LNG ships.Now the strudy of decision making of ship is mainly about two aspects of technology advanced and economy rational,we also consider the indicators of risk. We study the decision making of LNG ships considering the three aspects.The research content of the article is as follows:Firstly,the article introduces the physical and chemical properties of LNG also the dangerous features.The classifation of small LNG ships and security features. Secondly, the writer introduces the collision model of LNG ship in Perdersen and I WRAP, also concretely analysises the collision model and grounding model of LNG ships, and then computes the probability of ship accident.Thirdly, a large number of the information is collected,estimating the estimation of ship principle dimensions, providing the reference for ship preliminary design, creating the decision making system of small LNG ship scheme. In this system we detailiy introduce the indicators of technology,economy and risk,also the calculation method of them all.At last, hierarchical structure model and comparative judgment matrix are created using AHP, and then we can make a decision of the small LNG ships.VEB.NET is used to write a program fo the scheme,it needs to be completed on the human-computer interaction.,it can make the decision rapidly and accurately, also provide the reference for the ship designers.