Spatial Load Forecasting Error Evaluation Based On The Multi-scale Spatial Resolution

Spatial load forecasting is the foundation of the urban power system planning,whose main task is to predict the location and amount of future load, and theaccuracy of prediction impacts the rationality of investment, network layout andoperation of power system planning. Therefore, spatial load forecasting errorevaluation has an important research significance in power system planning.Facing with how to evaluate the influence of spatial load forecasting error inpower system planning, this paper studies spatial load forecasting error deeply andsystematically from the perspective of its size and spatial distribution.Firstly, this paper analyzes the application of geographic information system infield of spatial load forecasting. And it establishes electrical geographic informationsystem. Then, the advantages and disadvantages and applicable occasions of spatialload forecasting methods are analyzed in detail. The load density index methodbased on cellular historical load data is selected as the forecasting method of thispaper. On the original basis of this method, this paper improve the coordinationcoefficient of classification load density. And improved load density index method isused to spatial load forecasting in an engineering example. Faced with the difficultproblem how to evaluate spatial error in SLF, the analytical method of multi-scalespatial resolution is proposed. Through introducing and improving calculation methodspatial error impact value, it analyzes spatial load forecasting error quantitatively.Combining the error with its impact on power system planning, this paper achievescomprehensive evaluation of spatial load forecasting error. Finally, it carries onfurther-development of geographic information system, and adds modules to thespatial load forecasting platform.