Research On Spatial Load Forecasting Technology In Distribution Network Grid Planning

Power load forecasting is an important task for the power sector and is essential for formulating scientific and reasonable grid planning programs.The proposal of grid planning of distribution network puts forward new requirements for power load forecasting.In the context of grid planning of distribution networks,according to the characteristics of the power load in the existing power grid,the spatial load forecasting in the regulatory area and the unregulated area are studied in this paper,and three levels of load forecasting methods for power supply unit,power supply grid and power supply area are given from bottom to top.According to the regional characteristics of the regulatory area,the load density method is used for spatial load forecasting.At the level of the power supply unit,the regional typical user survey is used to determine the saturation load density index of each land property;a method of determining the transition year load density index by using an S-curve model is proposed;the calculation method of the load simultaneity factor in the power supply unit is presented;and a computer program statistical method of different land properties in the power supply unit is given to determine the power supply unit load.At the level of the power supply grid,the calculation method of the load simultaneity factor between the power supply units is given.At the level of the power supply area,since the power supply grid is a comprehensive area with a large area and the load simultaneity factor between them is close to 1,the load simultaneity factor between power supply grids is no longer considered when accumulating loads.According to the regional characteristics of unregulated areas,the average capacity method is used to predict the saturation load of the power supply unit,and the grey forecasting model is used to forecast the transition year load of the power supply unit.Based on the existing grey forecasting model research,the impact of saturation load on the near-term load forecasting is considered,and a grey opposite-direction Verhulst model considering the saturation value is proposed.The background value of the model is also optimized.The validity of the model is verified through the example analysis,and the model can effectively improve the accuracy of the the transition year load forecasting in the unregulated area.Because the electricity of the unregulated area is mainly used for residential life,the power consumption is relatively single.After the load of the power supply unit is predicted,the load of the power supply grid and the power supply area are directly obtained by adding the load of the next level,without considering the load simultaneity factor between the same level.The above research is of great practical significance for riching the spatial load forecasting method and improving the accuracy of spatial load forecasting,and has been applied in the actual grid planning of distribution networks,which has achieved good results.