Passenger Flow Forecasting And Analysis For High-speed Railway Based On Analogy Method

Chinese high-speed railway is constructed rapidly. Some new high-speed railway which is not parallel to conventional railway is often lack of historical data. It’s hard to grasp the rules of passenger flow, which increases the difficulty of the forecasting. Passenger flow forecasting is an important basis of the optimization of transportation organization to make line plans, and also a task with strong uncertainty due to the relationship to the economic and social characteristics of a region. To forecast passenger flow accurately and reasonably is of great significance in reality and theory.The aim of this paper is to propose a feasible method to forecast passenger flow for new high-speed railway that is lack of historical data. Based on domestic and international research results on passenger flow forecasting, spatial characteristics and economic analysis, this paper proposes the analogy method to compare different lines in terms of passenger traffic structure, line distances, station numbers and distribution. The purpose is to find one operated high-speed line as a reference. The main forecasting method is four-step method, but this paper has improved the gravity model by taking over-line and trans-provincial influence into consideration. This paper puts forward both the early and the mid-term forecasting process for the application of passenger flow forecasting on Nanguang and Guiguang high-speed railway.There are no parallel conventional raiway lines corresponding to Nanguang and Guiguang high-speed railway so that the rail passenger flow data of this region is lack. It is hard to forecast the high-speed rail passenger flow only based on the travel characteristics of this region. This paper chooses Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed railway which is similarly lack of conventional rail as a reference. Then, the differences in economics and the population are taken into consideration and the analogical four-step method is applied to calculate the relevant parameters. Ultimately, passenger flow of Nanguang and Guiguang high-speed rail both in2015and2020are forecasted. By applying process in the early and the mid-term forecasting process, the total passenger flow, OD passenger flow and section passenger flow are forecasted, respectively. The comparison results between the partial railway ticket data and the forecasted passenger flow data demonstrate that the proposed method can forecast passenger flow accurately. The analogy method is feasible and effective to forecast passenger flow for new high-speed railway which is not parallel to conventional railway.