Analysis On The Change And Forecast Of Passenger Flow Of Wuhan-guangzhou High-speed Railway

Analysis on high-speed railway passenger flow and prediction of high-speed railway passenger flow were one of the important contents for the work of high-speed railway’s transportation organization, which was not only the main basis for guiding operations of high-speed railway make the development of passengers’transport planning scientifically and designe for product of passenger traffic, but also the major guarantee of raising high-speed railway’s competence in the market of passenger transport. In terms of passenger flow forecasting, previous studies focused mainly on a single sation or the total passenger flow forecastting. Therefore the state of passenger flow among all sations in certain areas were less invovled, but the transportation organization departmentneed needed to master of them.Draw on existing research at home and abroad,the article analyzed the operational status, the spatial and temporal characteristics and the changing regulation of the passenger about the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. Combined with the actual situation of the operation of high-speed railway in China, a new method of passenger flow forecasting was propased through summarizing the actual processes and methods of analysis on passenger flow forecasting and the applicability of the backstepping technique of OD matrix, which was based on the backstepping technique of OD matrix. The paper focused on such issues from the following aspects:First, the transport organizations and operating results of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were summed up based on it’s passenger flow data. Then the behavior characteristics of passengers’ travel about the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were analyzed using RP survey methodology. After that, this paper summarized spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the the passerger flow and the change rule of daily passenger flow and holidays passenger flow of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway.It obtained weekday passenger had a weekly cycle and the holiday to the daily passenger flow had an influence cycle.Then, for unique operation organization of high speed railway, a new high-speed railway passenger flow short-time forecasting process had been established which was based on data results of OD matrix estimation in order to avoid the complexity of the statistical work. Furthermore, number of passengers getting on and getting off at the stations of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were predicted though ARIMA froduct seasonal model.Next, the original matrix were estimated by using the Markov chain estimation model, the Bayesian estimation model and the structural model respectively. After puting the results of solution of the above three algorithms in descending order by using of the OWA operator, comprehensive weighted OD matrix was work out by using of the calculation method the weight of the maximum entropy optimization model, the BADD-OWA and the mean similarity respectively. Finaly, with the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway as an example, the paper estimated it’s current state of passenger flow OD matrix, and then the estimated results had been inspected by norms.The final stage of the study, taking the development of high-speed rail as a standard,the paper gived corresponding countermeasures and recommendations about Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway in operation management, based on the above analysis of the operational status, the passenger characteristics and the changes in passenger flow since the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway had began operating.