Research On Ice Cover Prediction And Designation Improvement Of Transmission Lines In Lin’an Mountainous Area

In recent year, influenced by global warming, a variety of meteorological disasters appear increasingly more often, which causes great damages and severe effects. It is also more and more difficult to cope with. How the electrical power system handles the damages of ice-covered electric network when planning has become a very important and realistically significant research. Many institutes and electric enterprises have do some study on ice-covered transmission lines since the snow disaster in southern China in 2008, which however, are simply restricted to the general study in terms of the typical meteorological conditions. Research on the ice-covered transmission lines in micro-meteorological conditions is still cutting-edge, lacking of relevant studies and practice.Both the start point and foothold of this thesis are based on Tianchi, Lin’an County, Zhejiang Province, the certain micro-meteorological condition. What is studied in the first place is the formation mechanism of ice-covered transmission lines and the geographic features of ice layers. A basic ice-covered model is put forward on the basis of temperature, wind (speed and direction), rainfall, liquid in clouds and relative humidity. The thesis provides scientificity and accuracy of the predicting model which will help set up the online statistics of the focus lines in Lin’an mountainous area. At the same time, the measurement of input parameter of ice-covered model was introduced from the overall situation, local one, and geography respectively.Meanwhile,the thesis chiefly analysised statistical analysis and modeling of iced transmission line and structure to offer some valuable reference for the later design and reliability assessment of overhead transmissiong line.Build Tianchi mountain area ice covering prediction modal using the data of transmission line On-line monitoring and control equippment in Linan and Fuzzy neural network theory.The prediction methods of it adopt C Language development, power wire influence of ice cover depth coefficient for mula and the factors that influence on Micro-climate parameter.Make marshalling sequence from sail number to large ones.According to choosing effective data,make sure the structure of neural network input layer formed by wind speed,wind direction,environment temperature and environmental humidity.Make it more accurate and improve training rapidity and accuracy.Finally according to the prediction data of line icing,build multi modal line mechanics modal of complete situation using reduction and inversion theory to induce the degree of load-carring capability to each concerning part.Considering the factors caused by parts’long-time running strength and knowledge uncertainty of evaluation expert, I built an overall evaluation model about vague strength and calculated the fragility of existing line’s mechanical structure. So I came up with the idea——design and improvment of new power line based on those datas and analysis to provide quantitative analysis material for transmission iced line design and research.Aim at improving transmission anti-icing polytechnics and safe transmission level of power network in Linan area.