The Risk And Benefit Analysis Of Using Flood Resources About Chengxi Lake Flood Detention Area

The use of flood resource can effectively alleviate the flood water supply of Chengxihu area and brought significant economic and social benefits.It is important for us to consider the question of how to ensure the safety of flood control when we got the benefits when we us the flood resource. To the lood resources of Cheng Xihu, at the basis of the design of the historical runoff data and the various departments of water demand, combined with the engineering practice of diversion capacity constraint, using the long series tr calculate runoff profiting regulation, determine the water diversion scheme of Cheng Xihu storage area and the water yield of diversion Huaihe; analysis economic benefits bring from reservoir storage of flood resources of Cheng Xihu in flood season; the impounding scheme combined with the short-term weather forecast, analysis risk of the storage scheme may bring.Finally,take the risk and resource utilization efficiency as the goal, using mathematical method to calculate, the optimal fuzzy partition matrix,find out the best scheme of impounding in different years, realize Chengxi lake’s flood water resources utilization.The main results of the research are:(l)The water demand analysis to the surrounding and downstream of the Cheng Xihu, obtain the result that the surrounding and downstream area required by the Cheng Xihu water supply;analysis upstream regions of Lin Huaigang such as inflow of Huaihe and the surrounding tributaries Fenghe river, by the means of water regulating calculation, flood resources utilization of Cheng Xihu has abundant source of waterunder In the same conditions of the amount of water, to make a comparison between the different water diversion schemes, reach the most suitable water diversion scheme.(2)Distribution the left water yield of flood resources of the Cheng Xihu, calculation of flood resources utilization in Cheng Xihu can produce economic benefits by sharing benefits and pricing method.The risk of substitution method, calculate the risk of flood after using Cheng Xihu’ flood storage and detention when the flood comes.(3)Comprehensive analysis of economic benefits and risks after using Cheng Xihu flood water resources utilization, to calculate the optimal solution of fuzzy partition matrix under different water level using the fuzzy analysis method, selects the impounding scheme which the membership degree is the largest to the limited water level control scheme of Cheng Xihu.This paper argues that the combination of theory and engineering practice, the proposed method is analyzed as an example, this paper recommends a new knowledge of information science, and puts forward some new ideas and methods, the results obtained with practicability, reliability, and can be used as the practice reference of Cheng Xihu reservoir flood resources utilization.