Research And System Development Of Operational Risk Assessment And Contingency Pre-warning Of Power Grids

The strengthen of power grid’s monitoring intelligence can prevent the happening of large-scale blackouts, which is one of the current most important tasks of strong and smart power grid’s construction. Taking Southern Hebei Power Network for example, study on methods of on-line security assessment is done, meanwhile targeted prevention and control measures about the problem of line thermal stability are given. The system of operational risk assessment and contingency pre-warning of power grids is developed, which contributes to the operational monitoring of the power grid and thus prevents cascading failures and large-scale blackouts.According to the problems of on-line maintenance assessment, based on statistical analysis about real-time operational state of all components in power systems, the assessment method of operational risk of power systems under on-line maintenance mode is studied. Based on relationship analysis on power transfer, with the comprehensive consideration on both topology and operating state of the power system, the indicator of power betweenness is defined to identify the critical line and bus. By statistical analysis of real-time operational data from Southern Hebei Power Network, the key monitoring bus and line of Southern Hebei Power Network is determined, moreover the result of statistical analysis under maintenance mode is given.According to the problems of line thermal stability under system operation, a method for prevention and control is proposed based on sensitivity analysis. The method has considered both partial thermal stability and global operational level of the power grids. Based on sensitivity, trend of entropy and bus power level, adjustment indicator of bus power is proposed, furthermore the bus set of power adjustment and power balance is formed. The system power is adjusted by multiple rounds. The problem of line thermal stability is effectively eliminated. The effectiveness of this method is verified by practical application results of Southern Hebei Power Network.The system of operational risk assessment and contingency pre-warning of Southern Hebei Power Network is developed. The total needs are analyzed and system architecture is designed. The realization process, data flow and functions of each module are introduced. The development and deployment of the system are described. This system can get data from D5000. The operational indicators of the system can be analyzed by the results of on-line power flow calculation. From the point of view, steady-state operation of the power grid, operational risk assessment and contingency pre-warning of Southern Hebei Power Network are implemented.