Modeling And Analysis Of The Correlation Between Flight Delays And Flight Delay Propagation Based On Copula

General optimization objectives of schedule planning may include: minimizing operating costs and maximizing the utilization of resources. The optimization process tends to generate tight aircraft routing plans. Once the flight delay happens, the flight delay may influence the subsequent flights to a large extent. Delay propagation caused serious effects, not only disrupted the normal operation of the airlines, but also caused unnecessary economic loss to airlines and passengers. The major object of this research is aimed at delay propagation. The main content of this paper can be included as following aspects.First, the paper is aimed at the correlation between the sequence flight delays which caused by the initial delay for airline, weather and air traffic control, respectively. The time of sequence flight delays is viewed as random variables in the paper. Two-dimensional Copula function is constructed joint distribution of the sequence flight delays, and further analysis of propagation effects on subsequent flights affected by initial delay flight which caused by different factors.For the problem of the degree of influence caused by the initial delay propagate by aircraft resources in the network, the paper selects the initial delay time, the number of delayed flights, total propagation delay time as the characteristic variables. Asymmetric trivariate Copula function is constructed joint distribution of the three characteristic variables. Copula function is used to model the propagation delays and analysis of the statistical regularity of the initial delay p-ropagation effects on subsequent flights by aircraft route.Finally, for the problem of flight schedule reliability, the paper is used the degree of consistency between arrival delays and departure delays to measure the schedule reliability. Copula theory is introduced to study correlation between arrival delays and departure delays, and further evaluating the reliability of the flight schedule. It found that the risk of schedule unreliable may depend on the degree of concordance between arrival delays and departure delays at the highest percentiles of the joint density function.