The Research On Travel Time Reliability Of Urban Road Based On License Plate Data

With the improvement of people’s living standard and the enhancement of time concept, travelers not only expect to reduce the travel time as much as possible, but also hope to reduce the travel time volatility. Therefore, as an indicator of city road travel time fluctuation, people are more and more extensive in travel time reliability. The research of travel time reliability has important guiding significance for traffic planners, traffic managers and travelers.The travel time reliability is divided into three aspects, namely sections travel time reliability, intersection travel time reliability, path travel time reliability respectively, and these three aspects of the travel time reliability research are according to different research scope. In the research of link travel time reliability, firstly of all, travel time reliability evaluation index is established:the probability of reaching a certain service level. Then I analyze the measured link travel time of odd or even limit period and daily by probability statistical method, and evaluate the link travel time reliability in accordance with the established evaluation index of different grades roads, and draw a conclusion that the travel time distribution is different between odd or even limit period and weekdays for each section, and its reliability is greatly improved.In the study of intersection travel time reliability, extend simple intersection travel time reliability to intersection domain travel time reliability, and respectively set up left-turn, straight, and right-turn travel time model of the domain intersection, then analyze intersection region travel time reliability by using Monte-Carlo simulation. And draw a conclusion that intersection region straight and left-turn travel time reliability are improved not obviously in odd or even limit period, however right-turn travel time reliability is improved obviously.Finally in the study of route travel time reliability, first I proposed using the weighted method to calculate path travel time reliability based on the research of link travel time reliability and intersection domain travel time reliability, and then set up the weights of links and intersections domain model, and obtained route travel time reliability on different days.