Reliability Evaluation Of Large Scale Wind Power Grid Connection Based On Monte Carlo Method

Entering the 21 st century, strategy of the most important energy sources in our country is new energy development and utilization. In recent years wind power to its environmental friendly, low cost, economic benefits significantly many advantages, has developed quickly in many countries. Due to the wind power generation has the randomness and volatility characteristics and wind turbine unit capacity and wind farm scale also increases gradually, so there is an urgent need to research large-scale wind power integration on the reliability of composite generation and transmission system.This paper first introduces the basic idea of Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of the theoretical basis, and analyzes the two kinds of methods hav e their own characteristics and scope of application. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods, this paper proposes a new method co mbining with Monte Carlo simulation method and the analytic method, its b asic thought is:through simple analysis on sampling the judge,70% samplin g states without adjustment can judge the state, thereby reducing every state evaluation time, increase the calculation speed. The establishment of power system reliability model based on Monte Carlo method and hybrid method, i n-depth analysis of the basic principle and calculation flow involves calculat ion and reliability index. Then consider the random variation of wind speed and wind direction, wind turbine, wake effects, effects of climate and geogra phical factors on the wind farm, a large wind farm Output power model, whi ch lays a foundation for further research on the reliability assessment of pow er system with wind farms.Finally, using Matlab7 to write the relevant procedure and evaluating th e reliability of improved IEEE-RTS79 wind system. The sampling number p rescribed, using mixed method, Monte Carlo method for system reliability in dexes of load reduction probability (LOLP) and power system blackout expe ctations (EPNS) to calculate, draw the following conclusions:the reliability of power system in the process of evaluation, the hybrid method is Monte Ca rlo simulation method can shorten the system state evaluation time, reduce t he amount of calculation so as to improve the assessment rate. The method c an improve the convergence speed and reduce the simulation, each state eval uation time, solves the problem of Monte Carlo simulation method to calcula te the speed and accuracy of the. Two kinds of scheme of reliability index co mparison, to achieve a more in-depth understanding and awareness of design and reliability research of wind power grid, the grid connected wind farm re liability assessment has positive reference value.