The Research Of Load Prediction And Optimal Operation Of Multi Energy Sources In A Micro Grid System

In recent years, due to the energy crisis is more and more serious, more multi energy micro grid promoted to the nationwide, so multi energy micro grid optimization operation has become a hot research direction of the scientific research. For optimal operation of micro grid system, there are many factors that can affect the optimization results, including energy power generation characteristics of component unit and the micro power grid load forecasting and the choice of optimization algorithm, the optimization algorithm of research is to realize the energy more one of the most important problems in optimal operation of power grid.This thesis based on Northeastern university and state grid Liaoning electric power supply co.ltd cooperation project Interactive intelligent device with electric key technology and system and scenery storage ac/dc micro grid power control system research and Northeastern university and state grid Liaoning electric power development co.ltd cooperation project development projects. The model includes wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, micro gas turbine engine, thermal storage and battery and other energy sources and energy storage unit, environmental factors of supply and demand constraints are uncertain, trying to get the power devices determine the solution of the optimal operation scheme, and by the simulation results verify that the scheme to meet the vast majority of environmental conditions and operation economy of the system requirements.This thesis mainly completed the following several aspects:(1) By studying the characteristics of micro power generation unit and energy storage unit, the function of the equipment model is set up, prepare the way for later establish system function constraint.(2) Analysis of the electric load data of the object and the load characteristic. Based on production plan and meteorological information load characteristic vector and load forecasting model is established.(3) Combined with the grey correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression prediction, build load forecasting method, and application of the basic data for the simulation calculation, in front of the validation of the proposed prediction accuracy of the algorithm. The prediction results will be more energy in the operation of the micro grid optimization load constraint part of the data base.(4) Put forward the overall optimization of energy micro grid model, establish a system of target function and power constraints.(5) To solve the constraint conditions of uncertain data, this thesis puts forward the grey theory and the multiple objective linear programming method, the combination of grey multi-objective linear programming algorithm is established, and by simulation computation are given more energy micro grid economic operation scheme, multiple energy micro grid theory provides a new solution and optimization of operation support.