Research On Regional Water Resources Exploitation Threshold Under The Effect Of Human Activities

Water resources were necessary for production and living, and how make the exploitation reasonable and sustainable and the limited water resources create the greatest value ha d been the urgent consideration to managers. In this paper, regarding Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation in China as the study area, selecting the effect degree of human activities on water resources as a breakthrough, the rational water allocation scheme and exploitation thresholds were discussed.First, the statistics of domestic, agriculture and industry which were related to human activities closely were extracted to constitute the effect degree assessment system of human activities on regional water resources. The concept of relative superiority degree in variable fuzzy optimization model was applied to construct the effect degree of human activities on regional water resources in order to rank and division levels. The effect degree of human ac tivities on groundwater was the weakest on Farm Beixing, and the strongest on Farm Youyi, while t he effect degree of human activities on surface water was the weakest on Farm Shuangyashan, and the strongest on Farm 852 among 12 farms in 2012. The effect degree of human activities on groundwater was a strong trend and a weak trend on surface water which can be drawn from the comparison with the effect indexes from nearly 10 years in Hongxinglong Administration.Second, a regional multi-water source allocation model under uncertainty was constructed by applying two-stage stochastic programming theory. The optimization and the satisfy plan of each water source in three using sectors which were domestic, agriculture and industry on each farm was can be drawn from the model, and the meet to water demand goals in wet, normal and dry years was compared. Furthermore, different scenarios were set in order to illustrate the influence of water demand in different sectors on optimization. Agricultural water has great effect on water recourse system in Hongxinglong Administration and taking appropriate water-saving measures to irrigation water can ease water pressure.Finally, using cusp catastrophe model in catastrophe theory, the effect degree index of human activities on water resources as state variable, water amount indicator as major control variable and economic indicator as minor variable were selected. The supplement amounts of groundwater and surface water were calculated respectively when the water recourses sys tem was balance. The supplement amounts were the water exploitation thresholds for each farm in Hongxinglong Administration. The groundwater exploitation threshold was 30333×104m3 which accounted for 41% of amount of the available groundwater resources and The surface water exploitation threshold was 36910×104m3 which accounted for 47% of the amount of available surface water resources.