| In recent years, the construction of high-speed railway has been developed constantly, the operating mileage of high-speed railway has been increased progressively as well in China. In the 13th Five Year Plan, a new goal has been set as the operation mile-age will be increased to 30,000 kilometers, covering more than 80% of all the large cities in China. Under this background, it is becoming more and more important to protect the safety of high-speed railway traffic, improve the train punctuality and reduce the incidence on train operation accident. In order to enrich the management theory of conflict of train operation study, the theorization of chain-styled theory of latent conflict of train operation is proposed as a basic theory.Through the analysis of the current studies on the management theory of conflict on train operation, the necessity of this study is curried out. Based on the analysis of high-speed railway scheduling command system, the study of the reason for the formation of conflict of train operation, the analysis of characteristic of the interference of train operation and the definition, classification and characteristics of latent conflict of train operation are studied.After the analysis of redundancy time of timetable, the mechanism of action between redundancy time of timetable and latent conflict and the mechanism of action between interference of train operation and latent conflict, the primary cause of latent conflict and the comprehensive analysis of the mechanism of latent conflict can be proposed. Then, the diagram of mechanism of latent conflict can be put out.With the analysis of chain effect process, the mathematical analysis of potential conflict propagation law, the study of characteristics of the process of generation and transmission of latent conflict, the raise of the chain-styled characteristic of latent conflict of train operation, the definition of the "chain of latent conflict of high-speed rail train operation", the analysis of meaning and characteristics of latent-conflict chain and the significance of the study on the theory of the latent-conflict chain will be done.Through the simulation of the generation, transmission and digestion process of latent conflict through computer simulation, the mechanism of action among interference of train operation, redundancy time of timetable and latent conflict of train operation can be studied, along with that, chain-styled theory of latent conflict can be proved. |
