| With the opening of a large number of high-speed railways, China’s Railway began to enter the "speed" of the era. For civil aviation, highway, railway and high speed railway "four in one" transportation system, the high-quality of service and strong capacity of high speed railway has a great impact on the other three modes of transport. So, it will break the original balance of transportation system in the process and establish a new equilibrium system continually.At the same time, the evaluation of the efficiency of high speed railway is becoming more and more intense and becomes the focus of the whole society, and it is an important part of the economic evaluation of railway projects to carry out scientific calculation and analysis of the sources and compositions of the railway project after the completion of the railway project. Currently, after the completion of high-speed railway in our country, the method of scientific analysis of the compositions of its traffic is not perfect, and the empirical study of it has only just begun, therefore, this paper made a preliminary exploration for methods and empirical research of the sources and compositions of high-speed railway traffic.June 30,2011, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway between the Bohai sea economic circle and the "Yangtze River Delta" economic circle has set up a fast-track of the crowd and the flow of information and greatly enhanced between the two cities and the economic circle exchanges and cooperation in the region around the cities, but on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway traffic sources and compositions of the published literature has not been found to be quantitatively analyzed. This paper is based on the Beijing Shanghai high speed railway, and divided the line into 7 nodes. The volume of this paper focuses on the nodes between the cities and the Beijing Shanghai line compositions and traffic sources based on the civil aviation, railway and highway traffic. Considering the data can be acquired, the choice nodes in the city’s significance lies in the fact that makes the problem simplified, and does not create great influence for the accuracy of the research, its traffic volume composition can be estimated according to the traffic volume between two nodes of the nearby cities. High-speed railway transportation volume is composed of shift traffic volume and induced traffic volume. Given there is a big difference between the different cities, turnover is the product of the number of transmission and interval dstance. The paper’s analysis variable is turnover. BP neural network has unique advantages and current application of this method to analyze high-speed railway volume publication constituted less, this paper will calculate and analyze the compositions of high-speed railway by this method.The results show that the composition of the volume for the Beijing Shanghai high speed rail traffic in different years and different sections in a state of change. The Beijing Shanghai line induced volume ratio from 2012 to 2014 showed a decreasing trend; Beijing Shanghai high speed railway operations influence biggest is existing railway; aviation shift volume ratio presented a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2014; the shift volume ratio is relatively larger in longer distance section. Because of the limitation of the Beijing Shanghai high speed railway operation shorter and available data, High-speed railway traffic configuration method and empirical research need longer years and continue to explore further to sum up the law. |
PDF Full Text Request