The Study On Issues Regarding The Traffic Volume Forecasting Of Express Highway Widening

Based on the common phenomenon and major development direction of express highway developing construction, this thesis analyzes traffic volume forecast of express highway widening and of pre-studying new construction express highway from time and space angle, and studies the discrimination relation with the traffic volume forecast of express highway post-assessment. This thesis offer reference for the traffic volume forecast of express highway widening.According to features of the times and the influence of primary express highway, this thesis studies each stage of the OD traffic survey which is the basis work of traffic volume forecast, puts forward the OD traffic district divided method of express highway: divided the direct impact district by series style according to the axis of studying project; divided the indirect impact district fragment according the framework of intersectant highway. Applying the "the method of consecutive half lay out spots", this thesis layes out the investigation spots in the toll-station of major express highway and elevated intersection exit, and applies synthetical investigation to reduce the errors coming from "series-parallel method", utilizes the theory coming form OD district to engender the OD of exiting express highway, and proves the feasible of the method. Following, taking a example of express highway OD, adopts simplified four-stage method to forecast future regular express highway traffic volume. combining the theories of induced traffic volume and transfer traffic volume, studies the induced and transfer traffic volume forecast after widening and rebuilding the express highway, divides the induced traffic volume into" original impossible "and "original possible" induced traffic volume, analyzes their characters and development trend, propose further analyzing the short distance in the district of "original possible" induced traffic volume, also, classifies long-distance through traffic part and " originally impossible "induce volume of traffic into predict thinking and method of widening and rebuilding the express highway of normal volume range. Meanwhile, compares the expressway with the ordinary railway and compares the expressway with the special rail line for passenger, and analyzes them, studies each other and confirms the transformation relation. and the transfer amount.