Reliability Evaluation Of Generation And Transmission System With Wind Farm

As the energy shortage and environmental pollution problems become more and more serious,wind energy as a new energy which is renewable non-polluting has been vigorously promoted,while wind power technology has matured,the capacity of wind power connecting the grid is increasing.However,the fluctuation and uncontrollability of wind power generation have an impact on the safe and reliable operation of power system,so it is very important to evaluate the reliability of wind farm power system.This article describes the process of generation and transmission system reliability evaluation with wind farms,the main methods contain that the simulation of wind speed,wind farm system reliability modeling and generation and transmission system reliability evaluation methods.1.In this paper,an ARIMA-BP composite prediction model is proposed to solve the problem of conventional time series poor precision,which effectively improves the prediction accuracy of the non-stationary wind speed series.2.Considering the uniqueness of the wind speed,the wind farm model is established,which include the wind farm output model,wind farm wake effect model and outage model,which lays the foundation for the reliability.3.The paper improves the sampling method which combines important sampling and control variables methods' characteristic,at the same time,choose control method is used to selected important probability function in important sampling section.This method optimizes the state probability distribution function of the system to avoid low efficiency and algorithm degeneration phenomenon for the power system reliability evaluation using the conventional Monte Carlo method.The method can effectively improve the efficiency of the reliability evaluation.4.Using the improved importance sampling method evaluated the reliability of the IEEE-RTS system,and compute the index of the reliability and convergence criterion,which verify the superiority of the algorithm.