Research On Evaluation Of The Reliability Of Railway Freight Delivery Time

As the main artery of the national economy development, railway transportation has been dominant in the delivery of goods and carriage of passengers in a long time. In recent years, with the increasing demand of the timeliness of freight transportation, the inadaptability of railway transportation is gradually highlighted. Therefore, it is very important to select reasonable, reliable evaluation methods to measure the time of delivery of railway goods by applying the existing research results of the railway network.In this paper:firstly, we describe the theory of reliability and introduce the reliability definition, index system and typical reliability model. Secondly, the definition of the reliability of railway goods delivery time is proposed. Then, we focus on the freight time reliability of the technical station and in the section. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model is used to summarize the reliability model of the section running time reliability model and the freight time reliability of the technical station, we obtain the final results.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)The paper analyzes the process of railway goods delivery, define the railway goods delivery time and expounds the influence factors of railway goods delivery time and analyzes the action law of the influence factors of railway goods delivery time.(2)The paper summarizes the correlation theory of reliability and introduces the reliability definition, index system and typical reliability models. The definition of the reliability of railway freight transportation time is put forward.(3) The railway station operation time and the interval elapsed time were further study and railway station operation time distribution function were described by curve fitting and the K-S inspection of SPSS assignment. The technical station operation time was determined using clustering analysis method and K-means cluster analysis of SPSS, so railway station operation time model is set up. In the interval elapsed time, the paper assumes that interval elapsed time is β distributed and proves the validity of the distribution function by χ2 fitting. Selecting range standard operation time as interval elapsed time reliability threshold, the interval elapsed time reliability evaluation model is set up. Finally, collecting the station interval elapsed time and railway station operation time reliability and processing the comprehensive evaluation model of reliability, the final results are obtained.(4) combined with the concrete data, using the comprehensive evaluation model of railway freight delivery time reliability were discussed, and analyze the final calculations, concrete measures to enhance the reliability of the goods delivery time be put forward.