Study On Combination Model Of Prediction Of Power Plant Foundation Settlement

In the modern times of rapid social progress and economic development, electric power is an indispensable power source for the modern industrial production and life, while China’s industrial structure of electricity is still based on thermal power plants.Due to the impact of factors such as the interaction force between itself load and internal stress, mechanical vibrations, changes in groundwater level, improper construction survey and design, foundation settlement of power plant construction(structures) will emerge deformation in the course of construction and operations.This may cause tilts and destruction of construction(structures), affecting their effectiveness; excessive sedimentation may cause serious engineering accident, causing huge economic losses. Therefore, in the process of design, construction and operations of the building, prediction settlement foundation deformation is very important. However, many of the calculation method for predicting the settlement of foundation, and each method has its own applicable conditions, with certain limitations, also have their own advantages. There are many factors that affect the foundation settlement, such as geological condition, load condition, construction condition and so on.In practical engineering, a prediction method is very difficult to consider a variety of factors, the prediction error must exist.Therefore, in order to reduce the error, the establishment of combined model has theoretical and practical value, which integrate many advantages of prediction model.On the base of collecting, collating relevant information, consulting a large number of Chinese and foreign literature, this paper analyzes and summarizes the deformation theory of foundation settlement and methods to predict the deformation of foundation foundation settlement, introduces the principles and modeling process of gray model, Logistic model in detail, and use of two prediction models to predict power plant main buildings(structures) foundation settlement.Finally, for each single prediction model has advantages and disadvantages, GM(1,1)-Logistic combination forecasting model is proposed to forecast the power plant foundation settlement, so as to achieve integrated advantages of each single prediction model,overcome their own shortcomings, improve forecast accuracy. Combined with MATLAB software to establish predictive models, compare and analysis the prediction results of the power plant main building(structure) of GM(1,1)-Logistic combination model and the single GM(1,1) model and Logistic model with the actual settlement value.The results show that the GM(1,1)-Logistic combination forecasting model can eliminate the shortcomings of each single forecast model, and combine the advantages of both predictive models,and improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the prediction error of a single model.The overall forecasting effect of the GM(1,1)-Logistic combined model is better than that of the GM(1,1) model and the Logistic model. The combination forecasting model can obtain better ideal results when it predicte the foundation settlement of the power plant.