Research On Intermittent Dynamic Stochastic Process Of Large-scale Wind Turbine Generator System

In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, the problems of energy shortage and environmental deterioration are becoming increasingly prominent, so the development of clean new energy is the only way to solve the problems and achieve economic and social sustainable development. Compared with other clean energy, wind power generation has got more and more national attention because of its energy-saving and environmental protection, low cost of power generation, mature technology and easy to achieve large-scale industrial development and other advantages and has been set as strategic emerging industries and got key support. Now wind power has become the main force of the sustainable development of energy and environment and got broad development prospects. However, the wind power also has the characteristics of intermittent, random, and so on, which directly affects the safe and stable operation of the power grid in large-scale grid and restricts the development of wind power industry to a certain extent. Therefore, it is very important to study the multidimensional dynamic stochastic process of large scale intermittent wind power generation and understand the output characteristic of wind turbine and take corresponding management measures to improve the fitting level of wind power as far as possible.The paper summarized and reviewed domestic and foreign scholars’related research results about intermittent wind power including the wind speed model, the wind power generation model, and the application of Copula theory in power system and analyzed its status and development trends. Then, the wind speed time series model of the single wind turbine was obtained by using the time series. On this basis, the wind speed time series model of the multi wind turbine generator with the correlation and correlation considering the correlation was constructed by using the mixed Copula function to quantitatively study the temporal and spatial variation of wind speed of wind turbine. Then, the wind speed time series of the multi wind turbine were applied to the research of wind turbine output from the point of view of the piecewise function and the whole function in order to build wind turbine output model based on power curve and a case study was followed. Finally, some specific suggestions were put forward from the point of view of management in order to improve application effect of wind power output simulation and reduce the influence of intermittent wind power on power system, which have important value to promote the steady development of wind power industry.The paper contrastive studied the model of wind turbine output model based on power curve from different perspectives, and got a function model for simulating wind power output. Simulation results showed that the model could accurately simulate the intermittent of wind power output and reserve the time distribution characteristics and the fluctuation of the wind power generation sequence. The model can be used to generate random sequence of wind power plants output, which can provide time series of wind power random output in wind power output uncertainty analysis, power system stochastic planning and scheduling, wind power and energy storage system combined operation and other studies.