Research On Complementary Analysis And Combined Generation Stochastic Optimal Coordinated Scheduling Of Hydro-Wind-Solar Within River Basin

The development of renewable energy is an important way for China's energy transformation,and also a requirement for China to implement the strategy of sustainable development.The national development and Reform Commission issued a "renewable energy development" 13th Five-Year "plan" in December 10,2016,clearly put forward the complementary properties of the hydro-wind-solar hybrid resources generation,promoting the rich water resource areas to carry out the hydro-wind-solar hybrid resources complementary pilot demonstration project construction.However,the premise of renewable energy development in China is still determined by regional resource richness.The uneven distribution of resources and the irrational allocation of capacity lead to many scheduling problems and waste of resources.Therefore,this paper takes the river basin with abundant water resources as the object of study,analyzes the complementary characteristics of the hydro-wind-solar hybrid resources and studies the stochastic optimal scheduling of combined generation.First of all,Chinese meteorological data center and NASA meteorological database have been used,the resarch methods mainly include the statistical method,probability theory,water and solar generation models.The high altitude characteristics of the Yellow River basin,the Yarlung Zangbo River basin within the scope of a total of 22 meteorological and hydrological station resource temporal variation in months or years of generating capacity and other characteristics have been analyzed.The probability distribution of wind speed and illumination intensity is described by using Weibull distribution function and Beta distribution,and the probability distribution of wind farm and photovoltaic power station is obtained based on the relation between wind speed and output and intensity of photovoltaic output.The conclusions can be used for reference to the development of water power resources in the two basins.Secondly,the probability of correlation output of wind and photovoltaic power station based on considering the output of wind and photovoltaic power stations on the tail characteristics,construct the joint probability distribution model by using the Gumbel-Copula function.In the test of goodness of fit,the Gumbel-Copula function and Normal-Copula function,t-Copula function,Clayton-Copula function,Frank-Copula function and uncorrelation function for comparative analysis,description of the Gumbel-Copula function can better construction of the joint probability distribution.The two-dimensional distribution of the relationship between pearson coefficient and site distance,temporal and spatial distribution of solar radiation,wind speed;the measured power fluctuation of the standard deviation of the combined effect of different complementary output assessment of wind power and PV installed capacity allocation ratio;this is applicable to multiple power plant siting and sizing of the resource abundance index,complementary resources ability index,load tracking capability,and the optimal allocation ratio of river basin complementary site selection and hydropower and wind power and photovoltaic installation is obtained.Finally,in order to promote and encourage the complementary development of the basin with hydro-wind-solar hybrid resources.This paper further studies the combined power system short-term stochastic optimal scheduling strategy involves cascade hydropower and wind power,photovoltaic and thermal power.The constraints mainly include the power balance,reservoir storage capacity and discharge of reservoir water,dynamic balance,power units and other climbing operation.The objection is to minimize the economic cost and environmental cost of optimal scheduling model.In order to improve the consumption of wind and solar power,the output power will be scheduling higher/lower than the actual output into the penalty cost model.The Monte Carlo method is used to handle complicated high dimension relationship between power and penalty,and the water storage capacity constraints and output improvement.In order to improve the efficiency of the model,the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm based on ELM is used,which can effectively improve the global convergence rate of the particle swarm optimization algorithm.By numerical simulation,the optimal scheduling of water wind up in each period of the output capacity of the unit,the storage capacity of the reservoir changes;considering the correlation of the hydro-wind-solar hybrid resources has the advantages of low cost,low carbon;an example is given to further analyze the influence of the penalty cost coefficient on the output of the combined dispatching,and the joint output is more sensitive to the overestimation of the cost coefficient of the system;the improvement of convergence speed and global convergence of PSO algorithm based on ELM is better than the standard PSO algorithm;Considering the efficiency of input and output in different scheduling schemes,the data envelopment analysis method is adopted to evaluate the scheduling scheme.