Throughput Prediction And Suitability Analysis Of The Daishan Port

Daishan island which is in the center of Zhoushan islands is the opening maritime gateway of Yangtze Delta, with the advantages of port, tourist resources and geographic location. With the development of marine economy and construction of Zhoushan New District, the throughput of Daishan Port keeps accelerating. Thus, a scientific prediction of throughput will become an important tool for designers to make middle or long-term planning for port development and harbor design.This paper studys on the throughput prediction and suitability of Daishan Port. Firstly, it describes the economy situation and geographical location of Daishan Port,analyses the range of economic hinterland and the developing direction of Daishan Port. Secondly, given the relationship between influenced factors and the throughput, the dissertation comes out with a second exponential smoothing method to forecast the throughput of Daishan in the next few years. Meanwhile, a regression model between gross regional product and port throughput is established to analyse the change of Daishan throughput in the future.Finally, based on history hydrology data and Delft 3D, tide and sediment movement is simulated to realize the suitability of the local sea area in Daishan and to offer scientific support for port construction.