Research On Coal Throughput Forecast Of Caofeidian Port

With the development of global economic,the economic interaction between the country have become closer and closer,and the total volume of international trade has increased year by year.This has driven the rapid development of modern logistics to a certain extent,and the port as a country.The key node of logistics transportation has its economic and strategic status,which has received widespread attention from all over the world.However,from the current situation of port logistics development in China,ports have emerged late and received poor attention from the state,there are still many problems in the modernization of port logistics.As a newly built port,the main problem of Caofeidian Port is that there may be irrationalities in port layout,business strategy and investment scale of infrastructure facilities.Reasonable prediction of throughput is the key to solving this problem.Since Caofeidian Port is a new port and lacks historical throughput data.But now,most of the research is based on the historical throughput of the port.In this paper,the multiple regression method is used to comprehensively collect multi-dimensional information.At the same time,multiple methods are used to combine various models to comprehensively predict the coal throughput of Caofeidian Port.Specially researching coal ports can provide a new idea and method for the forecast of coal port throughout in the future.For Caofeidian Port,it is conducive to operators' future operations and establishment of investment plans.At the same time,it can learn from the throughput forecast of other coal ports.It analyzes the main factors affecting the throughput of Caofeidian Port by qualitative methods in the paper.Firstly,the general situation of the port area is explained,and then the macro development environment includes the international and domestic economic environment,national policies,the coal production and demand of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry demand environment,the competition situation of the surrounding ports,and the general situation of Tangshan City in the micro environment.Three levels analyse the impact on throughput.Secondly,screen out the key influencing factors.The multi-return method is used to establish the prediction model of port throughput,and it is solved by EViews software.By analyzing the correlation coefficient between various factors,the influence of multicollinearity is eliminated.Finally,using stepwise regression method to build the final prediction model.Next,using the above prediction model,the point prediction method is used to determine the future coal throughput of Caofeidian Port,and the sensitivity analysis is carried out,and the rate of change and the amount of change of each factor change to the throughput while maintaining a single variable.Finally,combined with the specific conditions of Caofeidian Port,provide advice and suggestions for the future planning and construction of the port.The paper provides a basis for the throughput forecast of new ports and future layout planning and investment construction.