The Research Of Huangshan District Load Forecasting

Power load forecasting is divided into electricity consumption forecasting and maximum load forecasting, which mainly serves the government’s urban planning and power system construction. In recent years, with the development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standard, the demand for electric power is increasing, and the reliability of power supply is increasing. As an electric power worker, a reasonable forecast of the power growth trend, which is of great significance to the development of related infrastructure, to meet the needs of social and economic development.In this paper, we first review the relevant load forecasting and regional power grid planning documents, to understand the characteristics and scope of application of various load forecasting methods. Then research collection of Huangshan District, Huangshan City, urban development planning, historical load data, recent load installed data and power grid construction present situation, through the analysis of various prediction methods on the adaptability and limitations of the area to determine selection selection "based on time series trend extrapolation" and "load density method as the basic forecasting method, to carry out prediction.On the basis of the parabolic model and simple S-type curve model and Gompertz curve, regression analysis method, quadratic index smoothing method, N curve model "based on the mathematical model of time series trend extrapolation" of Huangshan District in long term load forecasting and using recent load method to modify the data in order to predict that Huangshan District each time series of load high, medium and low solution. The detailed load forecasting is carried out by the "load density method", which ensures the high combination of the load forecasting and the urban planning.Finally, application of electricity consumption elasticity coefficient method, per capita electricity method and maximum load utilization hours number Tmax of prediction results were compared and verified, obtained the suitable in Huangshan District in the load forecasting data, is used to guide the Huangshan District in the urban development and the planning and construction of power grid.